I decided to look into DFG% for the perimeter guys, when someone in a previous post inquired how big of a difference defensively would AC be over Cam. That discussion is why AC is included.
Initially, from the eye test, I thought Cam was doing pretty great defensively, stats say otherwise. I guess he’s great with disrupting, but his shot defense is terrible.
He is still a positive defender, prior to a shot being taken. Disrupting passing lanes, and those forced TOs to easy points are huge positives still.
For these numbers:
-You want a lower DFG%
-Differential to be negative (A positive defender, will have a negative differential %).
-DFGA is just the amount of shots attempted with them as the closest defender (higher just means more play time).
I have it broken down to just 3PT and 2PT shots.
You can basically make educated guesses on how they defend against players within 6 FT, within 10 FT, and outside 15 FT from these percentages.
-Outlier 1: is that AR is also a positive defender against shots taken outside 15 FT.
-Outlier 2: Rui is a negative differential at both 3PT and 2PT, but overall differential is just positive, which is probably skewed from guarding enough shots from high FG% guys like Jokic or something.
Overall takeaways:
-Rui needs more play time.
-Cam possibly loses his spot in the rotation when Vando comes back, and instead takes over Max’s minutes. Vando does what Cam does, but is also good at shot defense.
-AR isn’t terrible at defense, only when taken into the paint. He does a great job if he is just guarding outside shooters.
-I still think if there’s a trade opportunity for AC, it’s a bigger positive than people think.
| DFGA | DFG% | Differential% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Reddish | 8.1 | 60.8 | 14.4 |
| 3 Pointers | 2.7 | 50 | 13.8 |
| 2 Pointers | 5.4 | 66.2 | 13.1 |
| Alex Caruso | 11 | 44.4 | -2.8 |
| 3 Pointers | 4.6 | 46.3 | 9.5 |
| 2 Pointers | 6.4 | 43.1 | -10.7 |
| Austin Reaves | 15.5 | 50 | 5.1 |
| 3 Pointers | 5.8 | 29 | -7.4 |
| 2 Pointers | 9.8 | 62.4 | 10.8 |
| D’Angelo Russell | 12.8 | 46.8 | 1.4 |
| 3 Pointers | 4.9 | 49.2 | 13.5 |
| 2 Pointers | 7.9 | 45.3 | -6.2 |
| Taurean Prince | 12.4 | 45.2 | -1.2 |
| 3 Pointers | 4.8 | 43.8 | 6.3 |
| 2 Pointers | 7.6 | 46.1 | -6.2 |
| Rui Hachimura | 8.3 | 47% | .1% |
| 3 Pointers | 3 | 33.3 | -2.6 |
| 2 Pointers | 5.3 | 54.8 | -1.2 |
I’ve been defending Rui’s defense on this sub to death, glad to see some numbers backing it up. I’ve thought that he contested shots overall well, but ends up in some highlight plays jsut cuz great players are making shots over him. He’s also our best three point shooter right now, so I am once again beggin Darvin Ham to run him more with Bron and AD.
I’m not a fan of stats like that because most of the time we have cross matchups on defense. It is unusual for us Dlo defending any scoring thread, same for Reaves while Reddish is assigned to tough matchups most of the time. If you leave Dlo guarding someone like Fox and Reaves guarding Jimmy Buckets you will get closer to the reality, but players guarding superstars many times have worse defensive metrics than a liability you have to hide on defense.