With the amount of negativity directed at KP (rightfully so right now), I figured it was a good time to bring to attention our options at QB for next year. I do not think anyone will be trading QBs so I’m wiping that option of the table. If you have a compelling argument against that then I’d love to hear it. Will we be getting a QB through FA or Draft? Let’s find out.
We need to start with realizing that our FA ability is limited by cap space. We will be starting 2024 with -5.1M in cap space. We will also need to keep 10-15M in cap space for rookies and emergency signings going into the 2024 season. So we need to make up 15-20M in cap space to start. We can do that by cutting (and possibly re-signing to a cheaper deal) Allen Robinson and Chuks. Those two cuts give us 18.75M in cap space. I think we also will more than likely be cutting (or adjusting) Cole Holcomb saving roughly 4.3M. We also have some moves we can make such as restructuring and/or cutting some other players but the point of this is to show that we DO NOT have a ton of cap space available to sign anyone that is going to be worth 30M+ AAV. I pointed all that out to say that we will not be signing Kirk Cousins who has a market value of 39M according to Spotrac. I’d argue it’s a little less than that but still not in any range to allow us to grab him and fill out the rest of our roster.
In FA, I think we have two options/routes to go. We can go with an older vet to compete with KP (we also assume we cut Mitch saving 2.9M considering his best trait is being a veteran) or we can look to grab somebody who is under 30 and hope he can become our long-term/short-term starter.
Here is a list of the Notable FA QBs: Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, Jacoby Brissett, Tyrod Taylor, Marcus Mariota, Sam Darnold, Jameis Winston, Drew Lock, Baker Mayfield, Gardner Minshew, Teddy Bridgewater, Tyler Huntley, Joshua Dobbs
Over 30 Vet List: Kirk (39M AAV), Tannehill (4.9M), Brissett (2-4M), Tyrod (2.8M)
Under 30 Potential List: Jameis Winston (2.75M), Marcus Mariota, Sam Darnold, Drew Lock, Baker Mayfield (16.75M AAV), Gardner Minshew (3.5M), Joshua Dobbs (7.3M AAV)
Looking at this list makes me see these guys as actual potential signings: Tannehill, Brissett, Baker, Minshew, or Dobbs.
The NFL Draft is said to be rich in QB talent this year. We won’t actually know how good of a NFL QB Draft it will be until draft day (I guess technically a couple years after draft day) but there are a lot of talented players getting talked about as potential 1st round QBs. That list includes: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Shedeur Sanders and Quinn Ewers. IMO, Ewers and Sanders will/should go back to college so that leaves us with the 6 potential 1st round QBs. Each have their own strengths and weaknesses and the point of this post is not to go into them individually. The point of this post is to show that there will/should be potential QBs available to us where we pick. There is only a few problems with that. We drafted KP and he is still on his rookie contract and his contract is underwater. We do not have a starting T beyond 2024 (Moore/Chuks contracts end in 2024) and in 2024 we will only have Pat Pete and JPJ on the roster for our CB positions. No matter who we pick with our 1st round pick, KP will be on the roster in 2024 because his contract is underwater (3.8M Hit, 8.3M Dead) and I doubt anyone will trade for him. Does that mean we don’t go QB? Who knows but it makes it unlikely considering we have such a need at high priority positions, OT and CB.
*All info was found on SPOTRAC.
Appreciate the read and I’d love to hear everyone’s thoughts on this. I’ll leave my thoughts in a comment below to try and keep the post as neutral as possible.
I say this as someone who has been out on Kenny Pickett for a while now. Not only do I highly doubt they’ll draft someone in the first round this year, I’m not sure I want them to. After Caleb and Maye, I don’t feel strongly about any of Penix, Nix, McCarthy, Daniels, etc.
So my ideal, realistic solution is to sign a veteran placeholder AND draft a player around the 4th. As far as the vet goes, I’m not too picky; Tannehill, Brissett, Tyrod, Baker… whoever has the most reasonable price tag and understands they’re not the future.
But as far as the draft pick, I have my eye on one player: Dillon Gabriel. Advanced metrics have him on par with the top tier of QBs in this class and in terms of arm, accuracy and mobility. Just watch his feet (opposite of Kenny in the pocket), where the ball ends up (often absolutely perfect), and velocity (comparable to many names post Maye/Williams).
Everyone is going to see short, lefty, Hawaiian QB and scream Tua, but I see more Sam Howell/Brock Purdy. His big knock is that he’s short, but I was shocked watching the film seeing how overlooked he currently is.