For us to get the 1 seed, Philly has to lose at least one game and we have to beat them and win out. So let’s look at all the scenarios:

1) Dallas wins out, Philly loses to us and the 9ers and wins out otherwise, 9ers win out, and Lions win out besides a loss to us

In this scenario, there is a 4 way tie. The first tiebreaker in a 4 way tie is head to head record (best win-loss-tie percentage in games among the clubs). We would be 2-2, with wins against Philly and Detroit, losses against Philly and 9ers. So 50%. Lions would be 0-1 (0%). Philly would be 1-2 (win against us, losses against us and 9ers). So 33%. 9ers would be 2-0 (100%). This would put us at the 2 seed.

So, to have a chance at the 1 seed, we need San Fran to beat Philly and lose at least one other game. Their best bets for that loss are this week (Seahawks; good team and division games can always be tough), week 14 (Seahawks again), and week 16 (Ravens). Let’s look at that scenario.

2) Dallas wins out, Philly loses to us and the 9ers and wins out otherwise, Lions win out besides a loss to us, 9ers lose another game

Now, it would be a 3 way tie. We would be 2-1 (wins against Philly and Detroit, loss against Philly), Lions would be 0-1 (loss against us), Philly would be 1-1 (win against us, loss against us). So, in this scenario, we would get the 1 seed.

3) Dallas wins out, Philly loses to us and the 9ers and wins out otherwise, 9ers lose another game, Lions lose to us and another game

Now, it’s just a head to head tie between us and Philly. First tiebreaker is head to head, which we obviously split. Second tiebreaker is division record. We would both be 5-1. Third tiebreaker is common games. We both lost to the 9ers, they lost to the Jets, we lost to the Cardinals. So this one comes out a tie as well. FOURTH tiebreaker is where it is finally decided. Conference record. And this is why the Cardinals loss was particularly painful. Our loss to a crappy team was within the conference. Eagles’ loss to a crappy team wasn’t. So, in this case, Eagles win the tiebreaker, and we get stuck with the 5th seed and, likely, a fully away schedule in the playoffs.

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And, obviously, if we lose another game, especially if we lose to Philly again, we’re essentially locked in the 5th seed barring a complete collapse from the Eagles. So, our best bet would obviously be scenario 2, with the second best being scenario 1, because we would still avoid the 9ers until the NFCCG and get the wildcard and divisional round at home. So, in conclusion, rooting guide: Go Lions, and go Ravens and/or Seahawks (besides their games against us, obviously).