Welcome to the twelve iteration of 2023’s “Buffalo Bills Rooting Interests”! These posts are intended to provide Bills Mafia with rationale behind who they should root for in every game in every week of the NFL regular season. Included is the Game Importance Scale which rates each game from 👏 (Least Important) to 👏👏👏👏👏 (Most Important). Future editions of this series will be posted each week on Wednesday by 9:00AM ET.

Ties and injuries are not considered in this discussion. Tiebreakers that are considered for overall standings are as follows:

H2H: Head-to-Head
WLC: Win/Loss in Conference
WLG: Win/Loss in Common Games (min 4)
SOV: Strength of Victory
SOS: Strength of Schedule

Week #11 Review

More importantly than anything the Bills got back on track with a massive win against the New York Jets to improve to 6-5 on the season. Buffalo would also get some help via a Bengals loss, Chargers loss, and even Chiefs loss but other than that there weren’t very many positives. The Browns, Dolphins, Texans, and Broncos all won one score games whilst the Jaguars continued their winning ways. Buffalo will look for a win in Week #12 to begin a hot streak prior to their bye while hoping that just a few important games during Thanksgiving week go their way.

Rooting Interests Record: 55-76 (LW 4-9)

Rooting Interests 👏 +/-: -39 (LW -14 👏*)*

Packers @ Lions (Thursday 12:30PM) 👏

A rough Week #12 schedule features 5 NFC only, non-Bills opponent, matchups beginning with the first game of the week. For Rooting Interests that means we look to the SOV of other AFC teams as the determining factor in who to root for. In the case of Packers @ Lions the information that matters starts with the Packers having lost to the Raiders Broncos, and Steelers while beating the Chargers. It’s also worth noting the Lions have lost to the Ravens while beating the Chiefs, Raiders, and Chargers. This is enough information to identify the optimal outcome which is rooting for the team that has only lost to one AFC contender as opposed to three.

Optimal Outcome: Lions Victory

Commanders @ Cowboys (Thursday 4:30PM) 👏

Commanders @ Cowboys is a battle of two teams on opposite ends of the NFL spectrum. The Commanders are on the verge of falling out of playoff contention while the Cowboys are still pushing for the #1 seed in the NFC. For Buffalo, neither of those two points are of real concern but there is still an optimal outcome available in this game. With the Bills beating the Commanders in Week #3, a win by them increases Buffalo’s SOV, even if it is only temporary pending the outcome of the Bills Week #15 clash with Dallas.

Optimal Outcome: Commanders Victory

49ers @ Seahawks (Thursday 8:20PM) 👏

While this game will temporarily determine the leader in the NFC West the only reason it matters for the Buffalo Bills is its effect on other AFC contender’s SOV. In that context, the 49ers have lost to the Browns and Bengals while beating the Steelers and Jaguars. On the other side the Seahawks have lost to the Ravens and Bengals while beating the Browns. This results in the following question to determine optimal outcome, is SOV more likely to matter against the Ravens or Browns? As of right now the latter is more likely than the former, root accordingly.

Optimal Outcome: Seahawks Victory

Dolphins @ Jets (Friday 3:00PM) 👏👏👏👏

Outside of Bills wins there is no greater rooting interest than Dolphins losses for the remainder of the season. This week, a Dolphins loss coupled with a Bills win put the Bills back in control of their own destiny in the AFC East. That’s a big ask from the Tim Boyle led Jets, but crazier things have occurred in the 2023 NFL season…right?

Optimal Outcome: Jets Victory

Saints @ Falcons (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏

We’ve reached the midway point of our NFC only non-Bills opponent matchups in Saints @ Falcons. Note that the Saints have lost to the Texans and Jaguars with wins over the Titans, Patriots, and Colts while the Falcons have lost to the Jaguars and Titans with a win over Houston. For optimal outcome which team is more dangerous, the Texans or Titans? The decision is easy, root against the team that has lost to the Texans.

Optimal Outcome: Falcons Victory

Steelers @ Bengals (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏👏👏

Steelers @ Bengals is one of the more difficult games to determine an optimal outcome for this week. Assume the Steelers lose, they drop to the same loss total as the Bills, but the Bengals would then be tied with Buffalo and ahead of them due to the H2H tiebreaker. Assume the Bengals lose, they would drop to six losses on the season and essentially out of the playoff race while the Steelers would improve to 7-4 and well ahead of Buffalo with a 2-game conference buffer. Either outcome has its pros while both have its cons but right now Buffalo needs as many teams to enter the 5-loss realm as possible, that means rooting for Cincinnati with the belief that Jake Browning will be unable to sustain success given their remaining schedule.

Optimal Outcome: Bengals Victory

Panthers @ Titans (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏

10-7 should be enough for Buffalo to make the playoffs this season. Why is that being mentioned here? As of right now the Titans have 7 losses meaning another loss by them basically eliminates them from the AFC playoff race. For Buffalo eliminating other contenders is incredibly important with a Panthers victory being inconsequential at this point in the season.

Optimal Outcome: Panthers Victory

Buccaneers @ Colts (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏👏👏

The Colts remaining schedule reads like a dream for a team that is currently 5-5. Here’s the remaining quarterbacks they are set to face; Baker Mayfield, Will Levis, Jake Browning, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Aidan O’Connell, and possibly C.J. Stroud. This will be an important team for Bills Mafia to monitor moving forward as they could be a sneaky playoff contender. That’s why this week this is a game to keep a close eye on with hopes that the Buccaneers can steal one in Indianapolis resulting in a phenomenal outcome for your Buffalo Bills.

Optimal Outcome: Buccaneers Victory

Patriots @ Giants (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏

The Patriots have already reached the 8-loss total that basically eliminates them from playoff contention this season. Moving forward, it’s a near lock that we will root for the Patriots in an effort to further drop the draft stock of an obviously rebuilding franchise. This week though, that’s off the table as a Giants win boosts the Bills SOV while simultaneously assuring there is no realistic way the Patriots can surpass the Bills in the AFC East standings.

Optimal Outcome: Giants Victory

Jaguars @ Texans (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏👏👏

The winner of Jaguars @ Texans takes a commanding lead in the AFC South, the Jaguars by way of a 2-game lead in the standings and the Texans by way of a guaranteed H2H tiebreaker. For Buffalo the debate in this game is whether seeding or an easier path to the playoffs is more important. In the event of seeding root for the Jaguars to drop this game in hopes that if the Bills can find a way to win the AFC east it’s less likely they will be bitten by the Jaguars victory over them. For a more assured path to the playoffs root for the Texans to take the loss here and begin to stack them down the stretch allowing Buffalo to clear them in the standings by season’s end. This could change down the line but as of now getting into the playoffs should be the priority making a Houston loss paramount on Sunday afternoon.

Optimal Outcome: Jaguars Victory

Browns @ Broncos (Sunday 4:05PM) 👏👏👏

Another intriguing one for the Bills where either outcome has its benefits and its drawbacks. Assume the Browns win this game, they improve to 8-3 and 2.5 games clear of the Bills by way of their far superior conference record (6-2). Meanwhile the Broncos take a loss and fall to 6 on the season making them a significantly reduced threat to surpass the Bills in the playoff standings. The other potential outcome involves a Browns loss pushing them one loss closer to the Bills in the standings while the Broncos maintain pace with the Bills, a team they hold an H2H tiebreaker over, for the stretch run of the 2023 season. For optimal outcomes, reducing the number of teams in the AFC playoff race is more important than providing the Bills a potential path to the #5 seed, meaning rooting for Cleveland to continue their improbable run is the rooting interest here.

Optimal Outcome: Browns Victory

Rams @ Cardinals (Sunday 4:05PM) 👏

We are down to our last two NFC matchups that only have SOV implications for other AFC teams. In this game we know that the Rams have lost to the Bengals and Steelers while beating the Colts. We also know that the Cardinals have lost to the Bengals, Ravens, Browns, and Texans. For Buffalo the rooting interest here is simple, root against the team that has lost to all the AFC teams it has faced and for the one that has only dropped two such games.

Optimal Outcome: Rams Victory

Chiefs @ Raiders (Sunday 4:25PM) 👏👏👏

With the way the Chiefs and Raiders are playing as of late this game has the possibility of going either way, even though it is likely to go just one way. From a rooting interest perspective there are multiple avenues to address here but one outcome seems to have way more weight than the alternative. As of this very moment the Chiefs are two losses behind the Bills but possess the ability to steal 1.5 of those back by way of an H2H win against them in Week #14. Meanwhile, the Raiders are just 1 loss behind the Bills but due to their H2H loss to Buffalo earlier this season are realistically two games behind. What all of this means is that a win by the Raiders not only provides the Bills a path to move ahead of Kansas City in the standings but also assures them they remain ahead of Las Vegas.

Optimal Outcome: Raiders Victory

Bills @ Eagles (Sunday 4:25PM) 👏👏👏👏👏

This is a game Buffalo can afford to lose but one where a win would provide massive momentum heading into Buffalo’s bye week.

Optimal Outcome: Bills Victory

Ravens @ Chargers (Sunday 8:20PM) 👏👏👏

The Sunday night game this Week is one in which realism must supplant optimism. As of right now the Ravens are the #1 seed in the AFC and at 8 wins with a 5-3 conference record it is highly unlikely the Bills can catch them in the standings. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 4-6 but with a game remaining against the Bills they control their own destiny for whether they will finish ahead of or behind the Buffalo. It’s ok to admit that the latter is more important while the former can be dealt with when the Bills have earned the right to deal with it.

Optimal Outcome: Ravens Victory

Bears @ Vikings (Monday 8:15PM) 👏

The final game of Week #12 also happens to be the final game we must discuss SOV in. In this case we look at a Bears team that has lost to the Chiefs, Broncos, and Chargers but beat the Raiders and a Vikings team that has also lost to the Chiefs, Broncos, and Chargers. This is as non-important of a game as you will find in Rooting Interests at this point in the season but with the Bears beating at least one AFC team to this point it’s currently more likely that a Chicago win will reduce the SOV of more teams than a Vikings win would.

Optimal Outcome: Bears Victory

Optimal Standings

If all the above games were to go the optimal route, it would result in the following AFC standings (All tiebreakers considered).

Ravens (9-3)**
Jaguars (8-3)**
Chiefs (7-4, H2H Win over MIA)**
Dolphins (7-4, H2H Loss to KC)**
Browns (8-3)*
Bills (7-5)*
Texans (6-5, H2H Win over CIN)*
Bengals (6-5, H2H Win over PIT, H2H Loss to HOU)
Steelers (6-5, H2H Loss to CIN)
Raiders (6-6)
Colts (5-6, 4-3 WLC)
Jets (5-6, 3-5 WLC, H2H Win over DEN)
Broncos (5-6, 2-5 WLC, H2H Loss to NYJ)
Chargers (4-7)
Titans (3-8)
Patriots (2-9)

** Division Leader * Wildcard

Rooting Interests Week #12