So lets start at the bottom and move up.
Immediate targets
- These heroes would be immediate, obvious issues that would attract the attention of not only each other, but also literally everyone else. Just as an example, bastion is obviously LEATHAL, but he’s also giant, and loud, and slow. The second he starts shooting people are going to all turn their guns on him.
- Bastion attracts too much attention
- Orisa is far too slow and again quite loud
- Dva… is hard to say. Depends on Toki’s mechanics. If she can recall her mech I’d say her odds immediately SKYROCKET. However, she’s still very loud and very vulnerable. Out of mech she’s not great.
- Reinhardt has no range, is slow as hell, and is loud. Additionally, he would likely starve to death due to his high food requiment.
- Roadhog is too easy to hit and too immobile. He would probably also suffer from starvation issues.
- Winston is too easy to hit, and is too loud. He can’t sneak around at all. He would have food problems, for sure.
- Ramattra is loud and slow, extra points into loudness. I’d say you could make the case to push him higher in the tier list, but I also think he’s simply a character that would be an early target. He’s just so vulnerable.
Major exploitable weaknesses
- These are heroes who are powerful… but have giant problems that would almost certainly lead to their deaths.
- Widowmaker is useless at close range, and is LOOUUUUD. Venom mine is very VERY helpful, and so is her hook. She’s in a good position for sleeping since she can always get into a safe position, but I simply think she lacks the resources to kill targets. WITH THAT BEING SAID, you do NOT have to kill people to win the hunger games, so you could CERTAINLY move her up in the list, I just think she’d end up getting greedy and exposing her position at some point. Sombra would stalk her ALMOST CERTAINLY and catch her off-guard.
- Zenyatta is big and slow. He’s also not an amazing combatant. His odds at hiding would be *okay* I guess.
- Sigma often places quite high in these lists but I think people often fail to realize that he is mentally unstable and falling apart at the seems. He would almost certainly at some point forget the situation that he’s in and find himself in a poor position. I also think he just wouldn’t fare very well in the wild.
- Lucio is not a trained combatant and he’s loud. Next.
- Mei is not a trained combatant and while her ice is potentially very useful, I think she’d have issues killing enemies.
Powerful in an alliance
- These are heroes that, with the right partner(s) could do EXCEPTIONALLY well. Pair these characters with the right lower tier and you could easily create a top-tier pair such as Winston/LW or Sigma/Brig.
- Mercy really needs someone who she can work with. I think she would do very well from a survival standpoint, certainly knowing what food and water is safe, and she could share this knowledge with her allies.
- Brig can make vulnerable close range targets neigh untouchable. Ana or Widow with her would become terrifying. I also think that, similarly, she would do quite well from a survival standpoint.
- Lifeweaver can get big targets into safer positions, he also provides VERY secure hiding spots and sleeping areas. I think he would be BY FAR the best survivalist due to his expertise in botany.
Not Impossible
- Heroes who can do okay, but lack major tools they’d need to survive.
- Hanzo is stealthy and good at killing enemies, he’s also mobile and I get the sense he’d be quite good at identifying safe food and water. With that being said, He just doesn’t really have tools other heroes do.
- Cass is a trained gunman, but he’s loud and immobile. I don’t think he’d be able to find safe sleeping areas and he may struggle to find safe food or water.
- Pharah is loud and easy to target. She needs Mercy or another healer. She can get safe positions which is quite good and can always get an idea of where other tributes would be.
- Tracer is fast, but she’s really fucking bright. I think she’d be easy to spot. She lacks verticality which is a huge downside.
- Ashe is basically in the same situation as Cass but slightly more capable if anything.
- Illari is a trained combatant who would likely have wildlife knowledge… With that being said, she’s also known for causing a MAJOR catastrophe. I think too much pressure would be on her and she would end up getting tracked by an assassin. She’s too much of a target.
Decent odds
- heroes who have okay odds, all the tools they need to survive, and whatever else.
- Kiriko has her fox spirit who would almost certainly be able to alert her of threats in dangerous situations. Her fox may also have information about safe food and water. Her mobility relies on having a viable ally to use it on, so I think within an alliance she could be DOMINANT. I do not think she is incredible at long range which isn’t great. I also think the glowing blue fox would be quite easy to spot.
- Genji is stealthy and half robot, his food and water needs are lesser than other humans. He has good mobility and he’s dangerous.
- Junkrat is INCREDIBLY crafty and has TRAPS. He would be dangerous, especially when getting close, but I also think he’d be overzealous and he’d lead everyone towards him. I don’t think he would win, but he would certainly bring down many targets in the process.
- 76 is capable. Not much else to say here.
- Zarya is quieter than other tanks which is huge, but I think she’d also have food need issues. Starvation could be an issue. She’s kinda loud, but only when she’s fighting. She also does well in situations where a lot of focus is on her.
- Torb has self defense within his turret which is huge. He lacks verticality though, and I think his turret could potentially accidentally reveal his location by firing at a target that wasn’t aware of where he was. He’s strong at close range and somewhat fast all things considered.
- Sojourn is pretty much the same as Genji.
Would have to be crafty
- These heroes have among the best odds overall.
- Moira is a SURVIVALIST. She is powerful in duels, she’s stealthy, she has verticality and escape options, she can live through most anything. Additionally, she understand the power of an alliance, and she’s manipulative. I think if she got her claws into sigma, she would absolutely win.
- Ana is quiet, stealthy, knowledgeable, and skilled. Unlike widow she doesn’t have to give her position away to fight. I do think she would struggle vertically, but I also think she similarly understands the power of a duo, and would probably find someone who could help her vertically. She’s capable at close range, (though not great) and even though she’s old she’s still exceptionally… EXCEPTIONALLY skilled.
- Sombra. Need I say more? If she got her claws into sigma, she would win. Even without him, she still has great odds due to her ability to catch people off guard, be impossible to find, and her overall info-gathering ability. I think she MAY struggle to find food, but I also think she would be able to scavenge off other tributes.
- Symmetra has amazing mobility options, self defense options, and good perception. Her turrets, unlike torbs, are far smaller, harder to see, and only target nearby enemies. She can also provide other tributes with some amount of mobility which could be quite helpful. I think she could potentially struggle with food, probably not water though. Hard light is a powerful and versatile tool.
- Reaper, similar to Moira. Struggle from range, but also very stealthy until he fights. Really good brawling potential.
- Doomfist. Good under pressure/focus fire, lots of mobility, lots of survival experience.
Solid chance at winning
- Junkerqueen is already an ACCOMPLISHED brawler. She’s certainly a capable survivalist and wouldn’t struggle with food or water. She would do well, be a threat, and be able to handle the focus of enemies.
- Echo. Food and water isn’t an issue, sleep isn’t an issue, sound isn’t an issue. She’s also a genius. With that being said, she’s easy to spot if she’s not smart about how she hides.
- Wrecking ball. Mech provides protection while also being far harder to destroy than Dva’s. It’s also a lot faster and quieter. Hammond also knows how to repair his mech. Food isn’t an issue and Hammond is also an experienced brawler just like queen.
- Baptiste. His little shoulder guy provides protection at night and also potentially information about food safety. He’s durable and dangerous, even at close range. His mobility is good. I think he could probably go a tier down, but I also think he’s superbly charismatic and wouldn’t struggle to find good allies.
I think you’ve got a great point with all of this. Would we take into account existing lore relationships? Or are we assuming everyone is neutral with each other, truly Hunger Games, style?
Because if we factor in relations with each other, Moira could get away with a Talon alliance, but manipulating most of the other would be pointless. I think, most likely, there would be starting alliances based on factions and separate alliances within those factions. For instance, the Talon Faction alliance: Moira, Widow, Sigma, Doom, Reaper, Sombra, and Mauga (if you wanna include him in the mix now) would likely split at a certain point. The first split would likely be that Moira betrays DoomFist as a decoy for the others, and the others know that they are just pawns to Moira, so they’d dump her, too. But Reaper and Widow would likely have to fight her or give her up to an enemy alliance. Mauga may split to join Baptiste or be dumped for being the loudest of the bunch and an inconvenience. Eventually, Reaper and Widow would split from Sombra and Sigma, but that alliance would likely stick around until Moira was out.
That’s just another layer to think about.