(Fair warning - This is all nerdy and mostly entirely useless. I only wrote this cause I was bored and find figuring out Blizzard’s logic behind the BP/Shop development interesting).
Predictions based on BP related behaviour and patterns I’ve observed over the last 7 seasons -
- While the shop and bundle skins seem to be favoured towards the more popular characters Blizzard seem to have been trying to stay fair with giving skins evenly to all heroes in the BPs till now.
-I’ve also noticed that there is a common misconception that there is a big relation between what heroes get skins in the Shop and in the BP in a given season. That doesn’t seem to be true though since heroes have gotten Legendary skins in the Shop and in the BP in the same season. What heroes get skins in the BP seem to be decided based on the BP itself and its histrory.
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There is always at least 1 Legendary or Mythic skin in a given BP for every Role so the BP doesn’t feel totally unappealing to players of a role. They also have never given 3 Tanks or 3 Supports Legendaries/Mythic in the same pass, only the DPS. Probably because there are a lot more DPS characters.
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Mythic Skins seem to follow only one major rule that every Hero will only get one (for the foreseeable future at least). The only other minor rules regarding them seem to be that a Hero won’t get a Legendary and Mythic in the same Pass and that they seem to be trying to maintain Parity in the amount of Mythics there are for each role.
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Since the BPs are meant to cover and serve the entire playerbase they seem to have been trying to give every hero 1 Legendary skin in the BPs before they start giving others a 2nd one but with the last 2 seasons they’ve started to give some heroes a 2nd legendary skin probably because there are very few Heroes left who haven’t gotten a single one yet.
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One exception seems to be Pharah. For whatever reason they gave Pharah 2 Legendary skins in the BP before most heroes even got one. Then they gave her a 3rd as well. The 2 most popular characters in the game are Kiriko and Mercy, both of which have only gotten 1 Legendary skin in the BPs till now. So popularity doesn’t seem to be the reason they’ve given Pharah 3 skins already. Who knows what happened. Maybe Pharah skins
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When a hero is new they seem to try and prioritise giving them more skins in the BPs probably because these heroes don’t have a big catalogue of skins that can be unlocked with Credits. New heroes also get a Legendary skin in the BP in the same season they are released.
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All the heroes who haven’t gotten a Legendary skin in the BP yet are -> Tanks - Hog and Sigma. DPS - Bastion, Hanzo, Sombra, Torbjorn. Supports - Brigitte, Baptiste.
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A Tank or a Support will get a Mythic but it’ll most likely be a Tank since it’s been 6 months since the last Tank Mythic.
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Since Mauga will already get a Legendary in the BP, Hog and Sigma will likely not get their first Legendary BP skin in S8 as they don’t give 3 Legen/Mythic to Tanks/Supports in the same BP. Hog could get his Mythic (I’d say he has a slightly higher chance than the others since his rework was in development for so long)* but the Mythic could go to any Tank who hasn’t gotten a Mythic before.
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Hanzo just got his Mythic so I’d say he has a slightly less chance to get his first BP legendary. My guess would be Sombra and Bastion.
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Bap I feel like has a high chance to get first Legendary since it’s the season Mauga will come out but I have a feeling that Brig still won’t get her first Legendary and it’ll be a repeat Support hero getting their 2nd Legendary before her (Since the last 2 BPs have had repeat Tanks and Supports getting a 2nd Legendary). I have a weird feeling that Torb and Brig will get thematically related father-daughter matching skins in the same BP whenever they get their first Legendary skins. Either next season or S9.
So Legendaries are probably Mauga, Sombra, Bastion/Torb, Bap, and Brig/Other support (Not Ana/Kiriko since they both have a Legendary and a Mythic, maybe LW since he’s still newish). Mythic maybe Hog (Or I’ll take a wild guess that it’s Dva or Orisa).