Since this has indirectly come up a lot on the board over the last two weeks, I just want to point out that there are four key parts of the offseason, and the order matters.

  1. Black Monday (January 8): The day after the regular season ends, when most coaches who lose their jobs are notified. If the Krafts have decided to part ways with Belichick, we’ll probably find out on Black Monday. If they have agreed on a trade, it’ll probably take a bit longer.
  2. The Combine (around March 1): The final major chance for the Patriots to evaluate likely draftees before the next phase starts.
  3. Free Agency (legal tampering begins March 11): The Patriots are slated to enter FA with the second-most cap space in 2024 (after the Commanders) and the most total over the next three seasons. Put slightly differently, while some of that money will almost certainly go toward returning some of their FAs, they will have to spend money to acquire more talent.
  4. The Draft (starts February 27): Note this comes after the bulk of FA signings. Ideally, the Patriots will have at least grabbed a plausible starter at WR, OL, and QB in FA so they can just go for BPA.