We are currently 3-12, tied for last in the Western conference. This season couldn’t have started any worse.
We get Ja back in 10 games, on Dec 23rd at Atlanta Hawks. Meanwhile Luke Kennard will be reevaulated after first week of Dec, Tillman is ‘week-to-week’, and Smart is 2-4 weeks out as of today. Clarke is estimated to come back in March, and Adams is out for the season.
That means at worst, we will have these three guys back 4 weeks from now when Ja returns. We have a 9 day break between Dec 2nd and 11th with no games - did I miss something?
Possible scenario:
The next 10 games:
- vs Wolves
- vs Jazz
- @ Mavericks
- @ Suns
- vs Mavericks
- @ Rockets
- vs Rockets
- @ Thunder - Kennard back
- @ Pelicans
- vs Pacers
- @ Hawks - Ja Morant back, Smart back
Being realistic, we probably go at best 2-8 out of these ten games. I would guess we will end up 5-20 by the time Ja, Smart and Kennard are all back.
If we assume Tillman is back within 1-2 weeks from then, we would need to go 35-22 in the remaining games to finish with 40 wins, which might hopefully be enough to squeeze into the play-ins.
Do you see this happening? Is it even worth trying for?
All this talk of tanking seems to ignore that we need impact players to complement Ja, Jaren, and Des now, not another rookie project. If we end up in the lottery with a decent pick this year then I want it packaged up and shipped out for a legit All-Star level wing so we can make a serious run at it next year.
As far as this year is concerned, I don’t see why they don’t try and make a run. You need to get fans back on board, and that means playing competitive ball. There’s no place for that loser’s mentality on a team that has a winning core.
Who is this mythical all-star level wing that we can afford huh? Ya’ll think we can add salary after maxing Bane?
If it were possible, Mikal Bridges. Let’s say we have a lottery pick in this draft and we’re interested in Bridges in the off-season (assuming he hasn’t moved by then), what does it take to make that happen? Because a Ja, Bane, Bridges, Jaren, Adams (fingers crossed) lineup can make a run at it and is worth a few first round picks and Ziaire.
Are you aware we already tried giving 4 FRPs for Mikal and Nets said “fuck no”?
Sure, when his value was at his peak and you still had 3+ years on his contract. Doesn’t mean you don’t call on him in the off-season if he’s still there, they’ve missed the playoffs, and you’re sitting on a lottery pick. The Grizzlies have all their own picks and an extra first rounder next year, and their recent track record with these picks hasn’t inspired a lot of confidence, so I’d rather see them overpay for talent if possible.
Nets have no incentive to tank because they don’t have their own pick until like 2028. And why would they trade for what we have? A team like OKC can give them way more in terms of assets.
We all wish for a lot of things, I’d love to have a mythical all-star wing that we can afford to keep too.
Nets don’t have to tank to miss the playoffs, they’re a sub-500 team right now and outside of the play-in (small sample size, sure). Being so far behind the pack in their conference and without a pick in 2024, it’s not unreasonable to think you can’t entice them with a 2024 lottery pick (again, assuming that’s where we end up). Bridges doesn’t fit any realistic timetable for them to contend within unless they believe they can make a splashy move in free agency, so he’s almost certain to go at some point.
Anyway, the point is that they need a wing and they’re not having much luck finding one in the draft.
I’m more interested in getting a elite young big that we could keep on a budget for years. As we now know, a big like Adams is not easy to replace. There’s really no assurance getting an elite big from the draft but there is close to zero chance we will get an elite big on the open market.
I’m still saying Bane is playing hurt and he will either be questionable for the foreseeable future or they’ll keep pushing for a serious injury on that ankle
The Grizzlies gain nothing from going to the play-in. Honestly, if we’re 5–20 by the time Ja returns, you really have to consider tanking.
Say they make the play-in. They could make it into the first round of the playoffs but more than likely get knocked out in round 1. Like, it’s difficult to make the argument that we’d knock off any of the top 4 teams in the western conference even in the best case scenario.
Which gives us the worst of all worlds: disappointment in the playoffs AND a shitty first round draft position. If we’re 5–20 when Ja gets back —and it’s a pretty decent possibility that we will be— expect one or two of our key players to be strategically “hurt” and miss significant time, enough to keep up just below play-in status.
Tank. Try to get Alex Sarr or whoever the most talented 7-footer available is at our draft position. It feels distasteful to say but there’s no way the front office isn’t looking at the roster’s outlook and not thinking this.