We are currently 3-12, tied for last in the Western conference. This season couldn’t have started any worse.
We get Ja back in 10 games, on Dec 23rd at Atlanta Hawks. Meanwhile Luke Kennard will be reevaulated after first week of Dec, Tillman is ‘week-to-week’, and Smart is 2-4 weeks out as of today. Clarke is estimated to come back in March, and Adams is out for the season.
That means at worst, we will have these three guys back 4 weeks from now when Ja returns. We have a 9 day break between Dec 2nd and 11th with no games - did I miss something?
Possible scenario:
The next 10 games:
- vs Wolves
- vs Jazz
- @ Mavericks
- @ Suns
- vs Mavericks
- @ Rockets
- vs Rockets
- @ Thunder - Kennard back
- @ Pelicans
- vs Pacers
- @ Hawks - Ja Morant back, Smart back
Being realistic, we probably go at best 2-8 out of these ten games. I would guess we will end up 5-20 by the time Ja, Smart and Kennard are all back.
If we assume Tillman is back within 1-2 weeks from then, we would need to go 35-22 in the remaining games to finish with 40 wins, which might hopefully be enough to squeeze into the play-ins.
Do you see this happening? Is it even worth trying for?
The Grizzlies gain nothing from going to the play-in. Honestly, if we’re 5–20 by the time Ja returns, you really have to consider tanking.
Say they make the play-in. They could make it into the first round of the playoffs but more than likely get knocked out in round 1. Like, it’s difficult to make the argument that we’d knock off any of the top 4 teams in the western conference even in the best case scenario.
Which gives us the worst of all worlds: disappointment in the playoffs AND a shitty first round draft position. If we’re 5–20 when Ja gets back —and it’s a pretty decent possibility that we will be— expect one or two of our key players to be strategically “hurt” and miss significant time, enough to keep up just below play-in status.
Tank. Try to get Alex Sarr or whoever the most talented 7-footer available is at our draft position. It feels distasteful to say but there’s no way the front office isn’t looking at the roster’s outlook and not thinking this.