The ongoing discussions about profit margins on the “first” [mass scale] generation of EVs from the Big Three supposedly being razor thin or even leading to loses has left me wondering if anyone be it the US DOT or a NGO has attempted to estimate how much the total cost for retooling the US automotive industry towards BEVs might look like in the end.
Obviously, I understand a lot of factors -from funding streams at every level of government, to international relations, to even just timing- can play an immense role in the calculation of such an estimate but I’m curious if there’s even a ballpark estimate. Have any analysts attempted to come up with with a “realistic” estimate of, say, when GM will have fully absorbed the setup cost for Ultium and vehicle unit cost will just be determined by the opex overhead of a given production line rather than having to also account for the upfront capex of the whole platform and production chain buildup?
Retooling always occurs. On an ongoing basis. Constantly.
Tooling wears out. The reinvestment in new tooling is assumed, always. Ford isn’t still making Model Ts because they once invested in tooling for them. In fact, they invested in aluminum bodies on the F-series line when the previous F series sold just fine.
The big three are used to massive capex. This is nothing new. The expense to pivot to EV isn’t dissuading them.