If AD had stayed in New Orleans, he for sure would’ve won an MVP award. He was putting up big numbers during his stint there and with no other star player around him, he could have beefed up his stats. However since going to Los Angeles, he had to play along side LeBron James, and despite being well into his late 30s, he’s still that guy and AD’s chances of winning MVP diminished.
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It’s not a fair question because we KNOW he won a title, the MVP is a complete crapshoot.
If we are saying he was hypothetically guaranteed an MVP if he stayed, he still goes to LA for the ring IMO