This is a revision of my previous post about 2024 offseason predictions – this post will be a bit longer than the original.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Front Office & Coaching Changes:

When the season concludes after Week 18, the team will announce a parting of ways between Ron Rivera and the organization. His departure will include major lieutenants of Rivera’s regime such as Marty Hurney, Martin Mayhew, etc. It’s likely Ron Rivera is allowed to give a final press conference, as a sign of class and respect from ownership, with another press conference led by ownership later in the same week. New ownership will formally start their search for a General Manager with a hiring announced by the end of January 2024.

Based upon an insider scoop from Burgundy Blog, it’s very possible that the new General Manager will be Ian Cunningham.

An interesting connection to the current Washington front office is that he spent several years in Baltimore which overlapped with Eugene Shen, the recently hired SVP of Football Strategy. His father was a NBA agent while his second cousin (Arthur Ashe) was the reason for the Citi Open tennis tournament came to DC prior to Mark Ein (limited owner) acquiring it. Overall, there are good connections to portions of ownership outside of his impressive front office resume which includes two Super Bowls and numerous team playoff appearances:

• Assistant General Manager with Chicago Bears (2022 - Present)
• Director of Player Personnel with Philadelphia Eagles (2021)
• Assistant Director of Player Personnel with Philadelphia Eagles (2019 - 2020)
• Director of College Scouting with Philadelphia Eagles (2017 - 2018)
• Area Scout with Baltimore Ravens (2013 - 2016)
• Personnel Assistant with Baltimore Ravens (2008 - 2012)

Last offseason, Cunningham was offered the Arizona Cardinals GM position but declined. He also interviewed for last year’s GM vacancy with the Tennessee Titans. Since joining Ryan Poles in Chicago, he’s been his understudy although most NFL insiders consider him a disciple of Hall of Game GM Ozzie Newsome.

I’d assume an area of importance with a new Head Coach would be their ability to develop Sam Howell or any future QB drafted in 2025 should Howell not work out. The favorite would be current Detroit OC Ben Johnson who should be comfortable with Josh Harris’ style of blending analytics into football operations, in part because Ben Johnson himself graduated from UNC with a degree in mathematics and computer science.

I think it’s very possible we see him as the new Commanders Head Coach shortly after the Detroit Lions season concludes. Competition for Ben Johnson will likely be the following teams:

• Carolina Panthers
• Chicago Bears
• Los Angeles Chargers
• New England Patriots
• Las Vegas Raiders

However, we can weed down some of these teams with deductive reasoning via each team’s recent history and Ben Johnson’s behavior last season when he passed on leaving Detroit.

Carolina Panthers:

Ben Johnson was targeted as a candidate for the Carolina Panthers last offseason. However, he declined and opted to stay with Detroit. While he has connections to the Carolina region such as attending UNC and growing up in North Carolina, the Panthers franchise didn’t exist until he was 7 years old. Prior to 1993, much of the Carolinas belonged to the Washington Redskins meaning there’s a good chance Ben Johnson comes from a family of Washington fans. For context purposes, Washington won 4 Super Bowls between Jan. 1983 - Jan 1992 with Johnson born in 1986 - the middle of Washington’s dominance. If Ben Johnson didn’t want to even interview with Carolina last offseason - when they were more attractive as an option - it doesn’t make sense he’d entertain them again this offseason.

Chicago Bears:

With Chicago, it’s possible that they retain Matt Eberflus while Ryan Poles is still the General Manager. Eberflus has the excuse that his hiring was in part to conduct a rebuild so the poor records are as expected. The defense has performed better as the 2023 season progresses and an argument can be made that Justin Fields is holding the team back. This could result in Poles and Eberflus selecting their own QB in 2024 while trading Justin Fields - who would be entering the deadline for his 5th year option. If the defense finishes strong, Chicago OC Luke Getsy could also be fired as a scapegoat.

However, according to NFL Insider Albert Breer, it’s becoming increasingly likely that new Team President Kevin Warren cleans house and fires both Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus – instead hiring his own people for football operations. It’s possible the replacement for Eberflus would be Michigan Head Coach Jim Harbaugh, who has ties to the Chicago franchise and Team President Kevin Warren. Harbaugh has been speculated to have interest should the position be available. This would remove Chicago as an opportunity for Ben Johnson either due to Eberflus surviving or Harbaugh being hired.

LA Chargers:

Brandon Staley has been on the hot seat since their disappointing collapse last postseason in the Wild Card round against Jacksonville, which was the largest blown lead in Chargers history. In early November 2023, it was reported that the Chargers will likely retain Brandon Staley for next season but on a short leash. Chargers ownership is notoriously cheap with reluctance to terminate coaching contracts too early to avoid a large buy-out.

A Chargers Head Coach has been allowed at least four years before firing since 2001. Brandon Staley’s record isn’t drastically different than either of the last two coaches, Anthony Lynn and Mike McCoy, both which were given four seasons before contract termination. Due to this, it’s unlikely the Chargers will even have a vacancy for Ben Johnson to interview for.

New England Patriots & Las Vegas Raiders:

The situation in New England is difficult to gauge but it seems as if Robert Kraft would prefer to promote from within. Kraft’s candidate of choice appears to be ILB Coach Jerod Mayo who has rejected offers from other teams to stay in New England previously. Kraft even said the following about Mayo at the March NFL Owners’ meeting, “There’s no ceiling on his ability to be a head coach, and he’ll be a head coach. I’m sure of that. I hope he’s with us. So we’ll see what happens.” Mayo has also been a regular favorite of betting sites when it comes to New England’s next Head Coach.

Las Vegas is currently testing out Antonio Pierce but that seems unlikely as their last interim Head Coach went 7-5 but still didn’t get the job. Mark Davis also appears to have a fascination with the New England Patriots which makes me wonder if he’d want another coach from that tree such as Brian Flores or Bill O’Brien. Regardless, Vegas will be a tough destination as they will likely be hiring a new GM and HC with the potential need to trade-up to draft a rookie QB in Round 1. That’s a high risk situation when also paired with the Raiders’ free agent and salary cap situation.

So Why Washington?

It’s very likely Washington decides to keep Sam Howell as the starter for 2024. Players and coaches around the league have given him a lot of respect although he’s been negatively impacted by several factors out of his control:

• Arguably the worst defense in the entire NFL
• Bottom tier offensive line that will need another overhaul
• #2 most impactful EPA from dropped passes by receivers

However, he’s not without blame as he’s had two implosion games against Buffalo and New York that appear to be outliers in his 13 career starts. However, if you remove the Buffalo and second Giants game his stats measure very favorably compared to other starting QBs through NFL Week 11:

• 65.6% completion rate – #15 in NFL
• 2,913 yards passing – #5 in NFL
• 17 passing TDs – #11 in NFL
• 6 INTs – #9 in NFL (tied with others)
• 2 rushing TDs – #7 in NFL
• QB Rate: 94.57 – #12 in NFL
• 291.3 yards/game – #3 in NFL

He has more career TDs and has shown more talent than Kenny Pickett, who has a 13-9 career record due to Pittsburgh’s strong defense. In 2022, Washington’s defense allowed 20.2 points/game instead of the 29.2 points/game allowed in 2023. If that carried over to this season, rounding up to 21 points allowed per game, Washington would have been 7-5 with the #6 seed in the NFC leading into Thanksgiving.

Ben Johnson also has familiarity with Sam Howell from the 2022 Senior Bowl. Howell said "He’s a great teacher. He just knows how to relate to people. He knows how to best get a message across, (he) teaches in a way that everyone can understand.” Ben Johnson, as a former walk-on QB and graduate of UNC, admitted to watching Sam Howell during his college years. In this video posted by the Detroit Lions, Ben Johnson and Mark Brunell (Lions QB Coach) appear impressed with Howell’s throwing ability. Their time together at the Senior Bowl was likely positive, as Sam Howell was the only QB for the American Team to score a TD and show consistent productivity while Ben Johnson called plays.

2024 Draft Order Prediction:

Based upon the upcoming schedules for the Commanders and the rest of the league, via NFL Playoff Predictor, I think the Top 10 draft selections look like:

1. Chicago via Carolina
2. Chicago
3. New England
4. Arizona
5. Tennessee
6. NY Giants
7. Washington
8. NY Jets
9. Atlanta
10. Las Vegas

In this scenario, Washington secures a valuable draft pick to compliment the ~$87M in cap space they’re expected have for the 2024 offseason. This cap space can easily be expanded to over $90M with releasing players such as Logan Thomas. However, there are concerns as Chicago, New York (Giants), New England, and Tennessee are all teams with obvious needs at QB. Teams such as Arizona could keep Kyler Murray for another year as his dead cap substantially decreases in 2025 - making them a candidate for trading down unless they draft Marvin Harrison Jr. Teams such as Las Vegas and Atlanta could trade-up for Chicago’s #1 or #2 overall pick as it’s unlikely Chicago trades out of the Top 10.

Overall, it’s very likely we see a 3-4 Quarterbacks drafted before Washington would select at #7 overall. This would position Washington for their ideal choice of non-QB players such as Olu Fashanu or Joe Alt, both considered blue-chip Offensive Tackles.