After today’s heartbreaker to the Texans, the standings actually don’t look gravely bad. I think if the Broncos win next week we’ve still got a real good shot

  • bossfoundmylastoneBEnglish
    1·
    11 months ago

    Tiebreakers for the wild card start:

    1. Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
    2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
    3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
    4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
    5. Strength of victory in all games.
    6. Strength of schedule in all games.
    7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.

    Remaining games of relevant teams:

    Team W14 W15 W16 W17 W18
    PIT NE IND CIN SEA BAL
    IND CIN PIT ATL LVR HOU
    CLE JAX CHI HOU NYJ CIN
    HOU NYJ TEN CLE TEN IND
    DEN LAC DET NE LAC LVR
    BUF KC DAL LAC NE MIA

    If we assume that the team with the better record wins the rest of the games (e.g. we have a 4-1 finish), leaving aside head-to-heads between these 5 teams, you have:

    • IND 10-5, 7-3 in AFC, with ?s against PIT and HOU
    • HOU 10-5, 7-3 in AFC, with ?s against CLE and IND
    • PIT 10-6, 7-4 in AFC, with a ? against IND
    • CLE 10-6, 7-4 in AFC, with a ? against HOU
    • DEN 10-7, 7-5 in AFC
    • BUF 8-9, 5-7 in AFC (I’m going to ignore BUF from here on out for this reason)

    Only 3 of those teams get spots.

    If we say IND>PIT, IND>HOU, HOU>CLE, we make it:

    • IND 12-5
    • HOU 11-6
    • DEN 10-7, 7-5 AFC, eliminates CLE via head-to-head tiebreaker (after CLE eliminates PIT)
    • CLE 10-7, 7-5 AFC, 4-2 in AFC-E, 4-4 in common non-division games with PIT, eliminates PIT via tiebreaker
    • PIT 10-7, 7-5 AFC, 4-2 in AFC-E, 3-5 in common non-division games with CLE

    If IND>PIT, HOU>IND, HOU>CLE, we make it

    • HOU 12-5
    • IND 11-6
    • DEN 10-7, 7-5 AFC, eliminates CLE via head-to-head tiebreaker (after CLE eliminates PIT)
    • CLE 10-7, 7-5 AFC, 4-2 in AFC-E, 4-4 in common non-division games with PIT, eliminates PIT via tiebreaker
    • PIT 10-7, 7-5 AFC, 4-2 in AFC-E, 3-5 in common non-division games with CLE

    If PIT>IND, HOU>IND, HOU>CLE, the 3-way tiebreaker comes down to margin of victory but we’re way behind on that (-39 vs +4 and +13)

    • HOU 12-5
    • PIT 11-6
    • CLE 10-7, no 3-way HTH sweep, 7-5 AFC, <4 common 3-way opponents, will come down to margin of victory tiebreaker (currently +13)
    • IND 10-7, no 3-way HTH sweep, 7-5 AFC, <4 common 3-way opponents, will come down to margin of victory tiebreaker (currently +4)
    • DEN 10-7, no 3-way HTH sweep, 7-5 AFC, <4 common 3-way opponents, will come down to margin of victory tiebreaker (currently -39)

    If PIT>IND, IND>HOU, HOU>CLE, we’re eliminated:

    • IND 11-6
    • PIT 11-6
    • HOU 11-6
    • DEN 10-7
    • CLE 10-7

    If IND>PIT, IND>HOU, CLE>HOU, we’re eliminated

    • PIT 11-6
    • CLE 11-6
    • HOU 11-6
    • DEN 10-7
    • IND 10-7

    If PIT>IND, IND>HOU, CLE>HOU, we’re eliminated

    • IND 11-6
    • CLE 11-6
    • HOU 11-6
    • DEN 10-7
    • PIT 10-7

    If IND>PIT, HOU>IND, CLE>HOU, we’re eliminated

    • PIT 11-6
    • CLE 11-6
    • IND 11-6
    • HOU 10-7
    • IND 10-7

    IF PIT>IND, HOU>IND, CLE>HOU,

    • PIT 11-6
    • HOU 11-6
    • CLE 11-6
    • IND 10-7
    • DEN 10-7

    TL:DR: If the team with the better record wins remaining games aside from head-to-heads between relevant teams, there are only 2 of the 8 possible combinations of outcomes in the 3 reaming head-to-heads between relevant teams that realistically get us a playoff spot. (3 out of 8 are technically possible if we pull off our own 50 point blowout).