Tiebreakers for the wild card start:

1. Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory in all games.
6. Strength of schedule in all games.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.

Remaining games of relevant teams:

If we assume that the team with the better record wins the rest of the games (e.g. we have a 4-1 finish), leaving aside head-to-heads between these 5 teams, you have:

• IND 10-5, 7-3 in AFC, with ?s against PIT and HOU
• HOU 10-5, 7-3 in AFC, with ?s against CLE and IND
• PIT 10-6, 7-4 in AFC, with a ? against IND
• CLE 10-6, 7-4 in AFC, with a ? against HOU
• DEN 10-7, 7-5 in AFC
• BUF 8-9, 5-7 in AFC (I’m going to ignore BUF from here on out for this reason)

Only 3 of those teams get spots.

If we say IND>PIT, IND>HOU, HOU>CLE, we make it:

• IND 12-5
• HOU 11-6
• DEN 10-7, 7-5 AFC, eliminates CLE via head-to-head tiebreaker (after CLE eliminates PIT)
• CLE 10-7, 7-5 AFC, 4-2 in AFC-E, 4-4 in common non-division games with PIT, eliminates PIT via tiebreaker
• PIT 10-7, 7-5 AFC, 4-2 in AFC-E, 3-5 in common non-division games with CLE

If IND>PIT, HOU>IND, HOU>CLE, we make it

• HOU 12-5
• IND 11-6
• DEN 10-7, 7-5 AFC, eliminates CLE via head-to-head tiebreaker (after CLE eliminates PIT)
• CLE 10-7, 7-5 AFC, 4-2 in AFC-E, 4-4 in common non-division games with PIT, eliminates PIT via tiebreaker
• PIT 10-7, 7-5 AFC, 4-2 in AFC-E, 3-5 in common non-division games with CLE

If PIT>IND, HOU>IND, HOU>CLE, the 3-way tiebreaker comes down to margin of victory but we’re way behind on that (-39 vs +4 and +13)

• HOU 12-5
• PIT 11-6
• CLE 10-7, no 3-way HTH sweep, 7-5 AFC, <4 common 3-way opponents, will come down to margin of victory tiebreaker (currently +13)
• IND 10-7, no 3-way HTH sweep, 7-5 AFC, <4 common 3-way opponents, will come down to margin of victory tiebreaker (currently +4)
• DEN 10-7, no 3-way HTH sweep, 7-5 AFC, <4 common 3-way opponents, will come down to margin of victory tiebreaker (currently -39)

If PIT>IND, IND>HOU, HOU>CLE, we’re eliminated:

• IND 11-6
• PIT 11-6
• HOU 11-6
• DEN 10-7
• CLE 10-7

If IND>PIT, IND>HOU, CLE>HOU, we’re eliminated

• PIT 11-6
• CLE 11-6
• HOU 11-6
• DEN 10-7
• IND 10-7

If PIT>IND, IND>HOU, CLE>HOU, we’re eliminated

• IND 11-6
• CLE 11-6
• HOU 11-6
• DEN 10-7
• PIT 10-7

If IND>PIT, HOU>IND, CLE>HOU, we’re eliminated

• PIT 11-6
• CLE 11-6
• IND 11-6
• HOU 10-7
• IND 10-7

IF PIT>IND, HOU>IND, CLE>HOU,

• PIT 11-6
• HOU 11-6
• CLE 11-6
• IND 10-7
• DEN 10-7

TL:DR: If the team with the better record wins remaining games aside from head-to-heads between relevant teams, there are only 2 of the 8 possible combinations of outcomes in the 3 reaming head-to-heads between relevant teams that realistically get us a playoff spot. (3 out of 8 are technically possible if we pull off our own 50 point blowout).

Wild Card tiebreakers for teams in different divisions

• Head-to-head, if applicable.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
• Strength of victory in all games.
• Strength of schedule in all games.

And the standings (assuming the Steelers lose):

• Browns are 7-4 and 5-3 in the conference (only 3 games against common opponents with Denver)
• Steelers are 7-5 and 5-3 in the conference (3-2 in games against common opponents with Denver)
• Colts are 7-5 and 5-3 in the conference (2-1 in common games with Denver, Raiders and Texans left)
• Wildcard Cutoff
• Texans are 7-5 and 4-3 in the conference (only 2 games against common opponents with Denver)
• Broncos are 6-6 and 3-5 in the conference
• Bills are 6-6 and 3-5 in the conference (4-2 in games against common opponents with Denver, KC Chargers Patriots Dolhpins left)

We’re a game back as-is. The only 2-team-tiebreakers we win are against Cleveland and Buffalo. With multi-team tiebreaks we’re fucked against everybody.

And of course the Titans fucking suck and let the Colts back in. Perfect day.

This team with the 6 1st and 2nd round draft picks we traded for Wilson and Payton, replacing them with Minshew or some other journeyman and literally any of the other coaches who would’ve cost nothing, could have easily replicated a .500 record.

We haven’t won a single game where Russ throws a pick. You know where the blame for this one falls. So glad we gave up all our fucking draft assets to watch a shitty team piddle around .500 and miss the playoffs yet again.

Can we fucking stop with this “roll Wilson into their unblocked best pass rusher” play?

Honestly, on a must-have 4th down, I’m ok with Russ picking up the sure first down over gambling with Jeudy’s infamous hands

So once a defender lightly touches your QB, your whole O line is allowed to mob him, tackle him, and start a fucking brawl with zero repercussions.

4 point gift from incompetent refs. There absolutely have to be offsetting personal fouls there after all the shit Houston did to Singleton.

Fucking despicable that they don’t call any personal fouls on Houston there. Stroud went helmet to helmet, then the Texans came over and shoved Singleton. Bullllshit.

Ball carrier lowered his head and made forceful contact launching the crown of his helmet to an opponents head. That’s a textbook foul.

The big hit Moore complained about was… getting a two-arm shove to the hip?

NFL outcomes, brought to you by Draft Kings

The NFL is so fucking rigged

I’d say it also helps to have teams worse than us win to keep our draft options open in case our win streak fizzles. So go Giants, Bears, etc. Hopefully it won’t matter though

It sucks that it took all these injuries to make it happen, but I’m glad Jitty is getting minutes. He can rebound, he can create turnovers, and he has viable guard skills.

Rose gets to have burst for one play a week. Glad we got an and-1 out of it

My league pass stream just died. I’m taking that as a sign.

Aldama can play a role in the NBA, but that role isn’t starting SF. He doesn’t have the handle or the body control to do the things he’s been trying tonight

These dudes aren’t even trying. Thanks for calling out the refs, coach, best of luck in your next stop.