First, let’s recap the relevant tiebreakers for teams in different divisions.
- Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
- Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
- Strength of victory in all games.
There are 6 teams in the wildcard picture, barring something crazy like one of the division leaders losing out
Team | W14 | W15 | W16 | W17 | W18 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
PIT | NE | IND | CIN | SEA | BAL |
IND | CIN | PIT | ATL | LVR | HOU |
CLE | JAX | CHI | HOU | NYJ | CIN |
HOU | NYJ | TEN | CLE | TEN | IND |
DEN | LAC | DET | NE | LAC | LVR |
BUF | KC | DAL | LAC | NE | MIA |
Only 3 of those teams get wild card spots!
With 4 weeks left, there are far too many scenarios left to cover them all. So let’s fill in wins and losses in games that aren’t a head-to-head matchup between any of these 6 teams. For these games, I’m giving the win to the team that currently has the better record.
Team | W14 | W15 | W16 | W17 | W18 | Record | Conference Record |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PIT | NE - W | IND - ? | CIN - W | SEA - W | BAL - L | 10-6 (1?) | 7-4 (1?) |
IND | CIN - W | PIT - ? | ATL - W | LVR - W | HOU - ? | 10-5 (2?) | 7-3 (2?) |
CLE | JAX - L | CHI - W | HOU - ? | NYJ - W | CIN - W | 10-6 (1?) | 7-4 (1?) |
HOU | NYJ - W | TEN - W | CLE - ? | TEN - W | IND - ? | 10-5 (2?) | 7-3 (2?) |
DEN | LAC - W | DET - L | NE - W | LAC - W | LVR - W | 10-7 | 7-5 |
BUF | KC - L | DAL - L | LAC - W | NE - W | MIA - L | 8-9 | 5-7 |
Buffalo’s 8-9 record eliminates them in this discussion
Then there are 3 head-to-heads between relevant teams. PIT vs IND, HOU vs CLE, IND vs HOU. The scenarios for those games:
PIT vs IND | CLE vs HOU | IND vs HOU | Broncos make playoffs? |
---|---|---|---|
PIT wins | CLE wins | IND wins | No, finish 10-7 behind 3 11-6 teams |
PIT wins | CLE wins | HOU wins | No, finish 10-7 behind 3 11-6 teams |
PIT wins | HOU wins | IND wins | No, finish 10-7 behind 3 11-6 teams |
PIT wins | HOU wins | HOU wins | MAYBE, 3 way tie with DEN CLE IND, losing on MoV -39 to +4 to +13 |
IND wins | CLE wins | IND wins | No, 3 way tie with DEN PIT HOU, HOU wins on h-to-h sweep |
IND wins | CLE wins | HOU wins | No, finish 10-7 behind 3 11-6 teams |
IND wins | HOU wins | IND wins | YES, 7th seed (CLE eliminates PIT via divisional tiebreaker, DEN eliminates CLE via head-to-head tiebreaker) |
IND wins | HOU wins | HOU wins | YES, 7th seed (CLE eliminates PIT via divisional tiebreaker, DEN eliminates CLE via head-to-head tiebreaker) |
TL;DR 1 If the team with the better record wins outside of head-to-heads, then only 2 of the 8 combinations of results in those head to heads realistically gets us in the playoffs
Now what if Denver wins out? That would mean the only upset in these non-head-to-head games would be Denver beating Detroit. In that case, these same 3 head-to-head matchups still determine the outcome.
PIT vs IND | CLE vs HOU | IND vs HOU | Broncos make playoffs? |
---|---|---|---|
PIT wins | CLE wins | IND wins | No, lose 4 way tie on conference record |
PIT wins | CLE wins | HOU wins | No, lose 4 way tie on conference record |
PIT wins | HOU wins | IND wins | No, lose 4 way tie on conference record |
PIT wins | HOU wins | HOU wins | YES, 7th seed |
IND wins | CLE wins | IND wins | YES, 7th seed |
IND wins | CLE wins | HOU wins | No, lose 4 way tie on conference record |
IND wins | HOU wins | IND wins | YES, 7th seed |
IND wins | HOU wins | HOU wins | YES, 7th seed |
TL;DR 2 Even if we win out, we only have a 50/50 shot of making the playoffs if the relevant teams don’t have any upset losses.
So even if we win out we’ve got to root for some upsets! Possibilities:
Week 14: PIT v NE, IND v CIN, HOU v NYJ
Week 15: CLE v CHI, HOU v TEN
Week 16: PIT v CIN, IND v ATL
Week 17: PIT v SEA, IND v LVR, CLE v NYJ, HOU v TEN
Week 18: CLE v CIN
Losing to the Texans is really going to cost us.
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