A catastrophic election defeat could lead to the parliamentary Conservative party tilting towards the populist right, Guardian analysis has indicated.
A projection of the seats the Conservatives would retain if there was a further two percentage point swing to Labour before election day, using data from Electoral Calculus, shows that about 40% of the remaining MPs would come from this wing of the party.
In less calamitous defeats – scenarios based on current polling levels, and on a situation where there is a two percentage point swing in favour of the Tories – the proportion would be nearer to 30%, roughly where it is now.
If I were a conservative I would be deeply concerned, given that Sunak appears to be totally inept, and that the Boris era has essentially purged the party of anyone that’s actually conservative. The party is essentially full of populist MP’s, and even in the fringes the best they can pull out for mayoral elections seems to be Trump supporters and Reform rejects.
Losing an election is probably the least of the Tories concerns right now. The best thing that can happen to the party is a near-total eradication of seats, enough to get the populists out and allow a true conservative to return to the fold. If I were a senior Tory member right now, I’d probably be in contact with someone like Rory Stewart, because he’s probably the best chance of a one-time senior Tory bringing the party back to the centre.