Looking at the teams that committed to a full rebuild recently, I can’t help but to notice that they now have a roster stacked with promising young pieces (25 yo or less):

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  • Cavs: Mobley, Garland, Allen, Okoro
  • Magic: Banchero, Fultz, Wagner, Suggs, Black, Carter Jr
  • Spurs: Wemby, Johnson, Vassel, Jones, Sochan
  • OKC: SGA, Holmgrem, Wallace, Giddey
  • Rockets: Jabari Smith, Amen Thompson, Jalen Green, Sengun

Conversely, the Raptors have no draft capital and lots of either old or good-but-expiring pieces. Do you really think the future of this franchise is looking good?

Here are some interesting recent facts about our picks (or lack thereof):

  • Since 2017, we only had two top-15 1st round picks (Dick and Barnes who both so far seem to have very good ceilings).
  • Our most valuable players right now (OG and Pascal) are from 2015-2017 which was a period when we had four 1st-round picks (more good picks = more chances of getting good players)!
  • Our championship run was only possible because we had players that we drafted (JV, Poetl, DeRozan, Wright) to trade for Gasol, Dany and Kawhi.

so… please explain why is it such a bad idea to switch gears and focus on staking draft capital and finding young talent to match Dick and Barnes’ timeline?

  • NatsuAruBEnglish
    1·
    1 year ago

    I can assure you that this is not always the case, and more recency bias.

    The Kings were rebuilding for decades. It’s only now that they made right decisions to suddenly be a playoff team, and even then, they are nowhere close to championship contention.

    The pistons for example are still rebuilding since losing Blake years ago. They have promising young talent, but that’s not the case either. Knicks were stuck in draft hell for years.

    Don’t let the recent teams cloud you into thinking that once we rebuild, we’ll suddenly find amazing talent. I can almost guarantee you that it’ll take a very long time on average.

  • -vinayBEnglish
    1·
    1 year ago

    Are we just choosing to ignore the other cases where rebuilding teams are caught in perpetual rebuilds? The current Rockets are currently on that trajectory. Others include:

    • <2020 Chicago Bulls (used their lottery picks on PWill, Wendell Carter, Coby White)
    • Charlotte Hornets (traded away Kemba and even hit big on LaMelo, still in purgatory)
    • 2013-2018 Magic (used their lottery picks on Oladipo, Aaron Gordon, Hezonja, Sabonis who was traded to OKC, Jonathan Isaac, Mo Bamba). They made the playoffs for two years, capping out in the first round and now they are trying their rebuild again

    And I can go on. A common thread of teams who rebuild well is the amount of draft capital they have. OKC and current Magic are accruing talent not just because of their draft picks, but because of picks they received from trading their stars (PG, Vucevic). In both of those cases, there is an element of luck involved (i.e. the Bulls didn’t trade those picks expecting them to be good). Like Boston would not have been able to build out their roster if it weren’t for that god awful Nets trade in the early 2010s

    • AllOutRaptorsBEnglish
      1·
      1 year ago

      All great examples. You also missed the best example of this in the Pistons. They’ve topped out at 23 wins for the past 4 years, and have won over 40 games just twice since 2008 (44 and 41 wins in those 2 years). So even last year’s disappointment of ours would’ve been Detroits 2nd best season in 15 years

      Sometimes rebuilding just doesn’t work

  • drgnmemeBEnglish
    1·
    1 year ago

    Those are great points about the young talent on those teams. But if your goal is to win a championship, all we have to do is look at the last decade of NBA champions, and most weren’t constructed solely through a full rebuild:

    • The Bucks built around Giannis, a draft gem, but also made crucial trades for players like Middleton and Holiday.
    • The Lakers leveraged free agency with LeBron and traded for AD.
    • Our Raptors acquired Kawhi and Lowry via trades.
    • The Warriors are perhaps the closest to a ‘draft success story’ with Curry, Thompson, and Green, but such draft success is rare and they still supplemented with free agency (e.g., Durant).

    A full rebuild can change the winning culture of a team. Consider the 76ers and their ‘trust the process’ phase; it’s taken them a while and they’re still chasing that elusive championship. W

    While stacking draft capital is essential, balancing it with strategic trades and free agency moves often leads to more immediate and sustainable success.