And we’re back! After a very disappointing but still well fought loss, I think a lot of people will agree with me when I say I still feel good if not better after than before about the outlook for the rest of the season. Its also been three games now since the offensive turnaround and therefore I can feel confident enough to say its a legit trend and will be the kind of level of play we can expect here on out throughout the season. Anyways, onto why we are all here!
Box score from PFR:
- 265 attempts (18th)
- 2011 yards (13th)
- 70.2% comp (3rd)
- 13 tds (9th)
- 4.9% td% (10th)
- 5 int (T-5th most)
- 1.9% int% (14th)
- 7.6 Y/A (6th)
- 100.7 RTG (7th)
- 67.5 QBR (4th)
- 6.59 ANY/A (10th)
Efficiency metrics from rbsdm.com
- 0.142 Epa/play+CPOE composite (6th)
- 0.192 epa/play (5th)
- 50.9% Success Rate (6th)
- 71.3% comp (9th)
- 67.1% exp comp (17th)
- 4.1 CPOE (9th)
- 7.6 Air Yards (17th)
3rd down performance from rbsdm:
- 92 attempts (15th)
- 0.288 epa/play+CPOE composite (1st)
- 0.514 epa/play (1st)
- 55.4% Success Rate (1st)
- 75.4% comp (2nd)
- 63.1% expected comp (9th)
- 12.2 CPOE (2nd)
- 7.9 air yards (24th)
3rd down performance from rbsdm since week 6:
- 36 attempts (20th)
- 0.401 epa/play+CPOE composite (1st, next best is 0.249)
- 0.760 epa/play (1st next best is 0.393)
- 61.1% Success Rate (1st next best is 55.3)
- 80.8% comp (1st)
- 60.8% expected comp (9th)
- 20 CPOE (1st)
- 10 air yards (12)
Blowout adjusted Efficiency from rbsdm:
- Plays: 99 (29th)
- EPA/play+cpoe comp: 0.212 (3rd)
- EPA/play: 0.326 (4th)
- Success rate: 55.6% (5th)
- Comp: 74.7% (5th)
- CPOE: 8.6 (3rd)
- Air Yards: 8.2 (6th)
PFF Grades:
- 82.5 offensive grade (9th)
- 79.8 Pass Grade (10th)
- 5.4% Big Time Throw Rate (8th)
- 1.5% Turnover worthy play rate (2nd)
- 77% adjusted comp (14th)
- 2.68 time to throw (11th)
- 6.1% Drop rate (10th)
- 8.1 ADOT (15th)
Extra stats from fantasy points data:
- 79.4% adj comp (3rd)
- 50.6% highly accurate pass rate (18th)
- 83.4% Catchable pass rate (1st)
- 6.8% drop rate (2nd)
- 2.48 seconds time to throw (11th)
- 2.46 seconds time to pressure (14th)
- 31.8% pressure rate (23rd)
- 2.99% pressure rate over expected (19th)
- 8.7% checkdown rate (18th)
- 5.1% CPOE (3rd)
Redzone stats from fantasy points data:
- Attempts: 52 (2nd)
- Yards: 190 (4th)
- Comp: 57.7% (13th)
- Adj cmp: 75% (7th)
- TD: 10 (T-7th)
- Highly Accurate throw rate: 51.9% (6th)
- Catchable throw rate: 78.8% (4th)
- TTT: 2.32 (8th)
- TTP: 2.23 (5th, thank you terrence steele)
- Pressure rate: 29.8% (19th)
- PROE: 2.32% (16th)
More extra stats from nfeloapp:
- 2.1 point value vs avg starter (6th)
- 4.9% td rate (10th)
- 1.8% int rate (13th)
- 3% td%-int% (8th)
- 50.6% success rate (5th)
- 60 total epa (6th)
- 0.18 Epa/dropback (T-4th)
- 1.6 Total Win Probability added (T-6th)
- 0.005 WPA/Dropback (T-4th)
EPA components from nfeloapp
- Rushing: 0.01 (9th)
- Sacks: 0 (18th)
- Incompletions: 0.04 (5th)
- Interceptions: 0.00 (14th)
- Air yards: 0 (16th)
- YAC: 0.07 (6th)
- Penalties: 0.02 (3rd)
Also just wanted to say, like how Daks 3rd down performance since week 6 would imply, across all of these metrics, dak has played like a top 3 *at worst* QB, at least statistically. I know its still a small sample size but I certainly will be tracking it personally because if Dak keeps this up he should be an MVP candidate by the end of the year.
Until next week guys, ciao.
Also I think its hilarious that Im already seeing so many people reranking burrow in the top 5 again since the niners game after playing like ass the weeks before even though dak played better before then and like i said in the conclusion has been playing better since as well but we still have to fight to get people to consider him top 10. I literally just today had someone tell me on twitter that he would take Derek mfin Carr over dak because Carr had a lot of game winning drives.
He’s already 9th in MVP odds, despite his defense only allowing him to play 2-3 quarters in 3 separate games.
Dak is a monster on third down
Don’t know if you’re still looking at these comments, but if you are, could you include statistics for Dak vs good teams? Something like Dak vs top 50% opponents (aka the 5 best teams he’s played)
I really appreciate the work you do to compile these stats. It’s always lovely to see how our QB is doing, and boy this makes it super easy.
Sure I’d be happy to, but in what category would you prefer the teams to be top 50% in to be considered good? Like top 50% in record, point differential, epa, DVOA etc
And thank you for the kind words 🙏