With the way injuries have been hitting us this year, securing the 1st weed and a bye week are more important then ever. Current order. I am including NFC losses bc this can be the tiebreaker:
Eagles 9-1 - 0 losses in the NFC
Lions 6-2 - 1 loss in the NFC
49ers - 5-3 - 1 loss in the NFC
Cowboys - 5-3 - I loss in the NFC East
(tldr: We are going to win our last 3 games. If we beat Seattle and 49ers, we can lose the other 3 games and we will still lock up the 1 seed. I explain why bellow).
Schedule - tough games
- Eagles - 5 tough games: @ Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, @ Cowboys, @ Seahawks
- Lions - 1 tough game: @ Cowboys 2 Medium teams: @ Chargers, @ Saints (Plus two division games against the Vikings)
- 49ers - 3 tough games: @ Jags, @ Seahawks, Ravens 1 Medium: Rams
- Cowboys - 5 tough games: Seahawks, Eagles, @ Bills, @ Dolphins, Lions
Schedule Prediction Range
- Eagles - 14-3 to 13-4 with a potential of 2-3 NFC Losses (It is hard for me to expect the eagles to go 1-4 the next games so my floor is 13-4).
- Lions - 13-4 to 12-5 (They have easiest remaining schedule and are only a loss behind us. A tie break scenario is very possible)
- 49ers - 13-4 to 11-6 (Coming off 3 losses in a row, they have a wider range here. They have bolstered their defense line with the additions of Chase and Gregory. They are getting key players back from injury in Williams and Deebo. That being said their defense has not looked like it has in years past and Purdy is showing weaknesses in his game).
- Cowboys - 12-5 to 11-6 (They still have a few tough games coming up. Even if they secure home against us, they I can’t see them only losing one more game for the rest of the year).
Biggest threat for 1st place and potential tie breakers.
- Lions - They are easily our biggest threat for 1st place. They might not be next best team, but they have the easiest schedule and only 1 more loss then us. I can see a scenario with both us being 13-4. Tie break would first come to conference record. The Lions already have 1 and can potentially pick up 1-2 more. We do not have any and can potentially pick up another 2-3. If we assume the next Dallas home game is a loss (obviously we can beat them again, but usually division games against good teams are split), we need to split the other two NFC games. If this is also tied, and there is a good change it will be, the tie break will come down to common games. We both have beaten the Bucks, they currently have a wins against the Chiefs and Bucks, a loss against the Seahawks, a game against the Cowboys, and two against the Vikings remaining. We need this to be the final tie break bc we will lose the following tie break (strength of victory). Our game against Seattle is probably the most important game we have left on our schedule bc of the NFC and similar games tiebreak it gives us.
- 49ers - The most realistic scenario for the 49ers is they end up with 12 win year and we avoid a tie break scenario with them. They have made gone on winning streaks the past few years so there is a possibility the only take one more L for the rest of the year. Our head to head matchup will be the first tie break so this is the 2nd most important game left on our schedule.
- Cowboys - I don’t see a realistic scenario where we have the same record at the end of the year. Even if they beat us in a few weeks, I can’t see them only losing 1 game the remainder of the year and I cant see us losing 4 of the next 5. On the off change this happens, our divisional record will be the same and it will come down to common games. They have a loss against the Cardinals and a win against the Jets, so this will be a wash. The 49ers and Seahawks game will be the decider. Again, if we win both of those, we lock up this division.
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