I am reading The New Wave, the last book from Microsoft AI CEO Suleyman. He mentioned that a massive study pegged down the General Purpose Technologies to be only 24 in the last 10000 years (so fire is not included for example), but I can’t find the study. Does anybody know the study? This is the list btw:
Domestication of plants Domestication of animals Smelting of ore Money Wheel Writing Bronze Iron Water wheel Three-masted sailing ship Printing Factory system Steam Engine Railways Steamship Internal combustion engine Electricity Automobile Airplane Mass production Computer Lean production Internet Biotechnology
EDIT: I found the source https://www.amazon.com/Economic-Transformations-General-Purpose-Technologies/dp/019929089X
Sounds like some totally arbitrary bullshit someone made up to meet a word count. Some are specific, some are vague. Some (lean production) are corporate bullshit
You could easily argue that things like washing machine, refrigerator and fertilizers should be added to the list. If you really wanted to make a serious list like this, it’s going to have hundreds of entries.
Fertilizer gave us the green revolution. Allowed the enormous populations that now exist. Without fertilizer there would have been famines
Before synthetic fertilizers were invented, people would fight for guano islands.
See also: Chincha Islands War
But then he wouldn’t be able to say AI is 25! And 25 is a cool number or something
That seens quite haphasard as a list, “three masted sailing ship” ? What purpose technology is that?
Maybe he just tries to box together things that have moved humanity forward? But then he forgets penicillin or medicine, space science (rockets, GPS,…), the internet, lots of stuff. Sounds like someone who thinks he knows it all but, surprise, doesn’t.
And as a CEO he feels “lean production” is one of them. Of course.
he forgets penicillin or medicine
Nah mate, didn’t you notice he tacked on “biotechnology” at the end? Lumping several fields of science and engineering into one entry is what gave him the space to highlight “three masted sailing ships” and “lean production”.
And metalworking multiple times!
For those that don’t want to click the X link:
General purpose technologies are the closest thing we have to magic.
Each has given us more with less - and propelled civilization forward. Check out this list of 24 over the last 10,000 years
- Domestication of plants
- Domestication of animals
- Smelting of ore
- Money
- Wheel
- Writing
- Bronze
- Iron
- Water wheel
- Three-masted sailing ship
- Printing
- Factory system
- Steam Engine
- Railways
- Steamship
- Internal combustion engine
- Electricity
- Automobile
- Airplane
- Mass production
- Computer
- Lean production
- Internet
- Biotechnology
AND we have AI, the ultimate meta-technology…
the real question is how many further general-purpose technologies it can unlock in turn.
“Smelting of ore”, “bronze”, and “iron” seem like they are either duplicates or not specific enough to be a “general purpose technology”. On the flip side, I would argue for the inclusion of radio, distinct from electricity.
There’s also a notable lack of chemical processes other than “smelting”. Electrolysis, nitrogen fixation (Haber-Bosch), and cement would be good contenders.
How about light? Isn’t extra work hours, the ability to operate vehicles at night general purpose enough?
I found the source: https://www.amazon.com/Economic-Transformations-General-Purpose-Technologies/dp/019929089X . And I added a screenshot of the table of content (available as a sample on amazon)
