Our first half of the season does not have the quality of opponents that the second half of the season does. I am worried we are a little too confident in our D’s ability to cover for our mediocre (apparently) offense. The eagles, bills, Bengals are all teams in think we have a really decent chance of losing to (I am particularly worried about the eagles). Any thoughts our D is overrated because of our schedule? I know we played the jags and Miami but those are our only solid wins (chargers kinda).
Defense is noisy, so yeah, on average, you would expect the team to regress a little. For example, we seem to be converting pressures to sacks at an unsustainable rate. But on the flip side, some of the things that have gone wrong for us are somewhat random (low rate of defensive turnovers, high numbers of penalties, high TD rate in the red zone) and might help us by reverting to the mean.
The key thing to understand is, reverting to the mean happens on many variables, not just one. If you want to know how reversion will change our outcomes, you need to look at whether we are doing better or worse than our expected outcomes, based on our actual performances. and the stats that account for that, like DVOA, say our defense is legit great, not just