I was replying to comments the other day on my post and I felt like something that I stumbled on was worth pointing out in a post, because it’s kind of encouraging (in a way).
Short version: Of all the consensus top 10 QBs people would probably argue are better than Trevor right now, Trevor has the worst offensive line, 2nd worst recieving core, and 4th worst rushing yards per attempt from his team. The only QB who really comes close in having as bad a supporting cast is Stroud, and props to him for looking insane despite the line. I skimmed a few “o line ranking lists” from different sources and went with the most recent one I could find.
I don’t really know which site does the best job at this stuff, so I tried to just get the most recent one. I couldn’t use PFF because I don’t have a sub, but the top of their list still kinda lined up with the point I’m trying to make. Here’s the one I’m using (https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/rankings/2023-nfl-midseason-offensive-line-rankings/)
So first of all, I’d say in no particular order, people right now could make a case that some or all of these guys are better than Trevor:
Mahomes, Burrow, Stroud, Lamar, Hurts, Allen, Herbert, Purdy, Tua, and maybe Dak or Jared Goff.
So let’s take those names and run down the strength of their offensive lines. (Format QB -> #O-line rank)
O-line
Mahomes -> #5
Burrow -> #12
Stroud -> #15
Lamar -> #4
Hurts -> #1
Allen -> #13
Herbert -> #7
Dak -> #6
Tua -> #10
Purdy -> #11
Trevor -> #20
If you look at Oline rankings BELOW Trevor, I think it’s safe to say you can’t really find any QB people are trying to claim is top 10 right now. These are the teams with Olines below the Jags:
Saints, Broncos, Cardinals, Titans, Panthers, Bears, Steelers, Patriots, Commanders, Rams, Raiders, Giants. Also, coincidentally, I think the Steelers are the only team with a sort of good record in that bunch below us.
What about receivers? I used PFF for this one (https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2023-nfl-receiving-corps-rankings). Unfortunately, I couldn’t find any credible looking mid-season lists. They were all from random blogs I’d never heard of, so this is a pre-season ranking. Format: QB name --> #recieving-Core ranking
Mahomes -> #11
Burrow -> #1
Stroud -> #32 (Props to Stroud, lol. I’m guessing this group is better than they expected, considering his passing numbers. Or maybe he’s just that good)
Lamar -> #15
Hurts -> #2
Allen -> #9
Herbert -> #12
Dak -> #6
Tua -> #3
Purdy -> #4
Trevor -> #16 (Gotta imagine our group ranks lower now with Ridley being a ghost this season. But expectations weren’t even that high and we’ve definitely sailed below them)
Once again, with the exception of Stroud (seriously, is this guy the next Mahomes or something?) he’s at the bottom of the list. Worst Oline of the “top QBs” and 2nd worst recieving core. Although I’m not quite sure how Stroud’s core is getitng such bad rankings if he’s throwing for 400 yards every game. Even if he’s inflating their value, you’d think they would be rated higher.
Anyway, last main part of offense is running game. I haven’t looked yet. Maybe this is where Trevor has an edge over the other guys?
I couldn’t find a great ranking list for this one so I just fiddled with the table on nfl.com stats. (https://www.nfl.com/stats/team-stats/offense/rushing/2023/reg/all)
Going through all the stats, we’re mid to below middle in all the good stuff. We’re actually pretty low on rushing fumbles, which is nice. But our yard per attempt/total rushing yards are around the middle of the league or worse. If I just try to keep it simple and use yards per attempt as the most “total” efficiency stat, it looks like the rankings would go like this.
Mahomes -> #16
Burrow -> #30
Stroud -> #29 (Props to Stroud, lol. I’m guessing this group is better than they expected, considering his passing numbers. Or maybe he’s just that good)
Lamar -> #2
Hurts -> #18
Allen -> #6
Herbert -> #25
Dak -> #19
Tua -> #1
Purdy -> #9
Trevor -> #24
Conclusion: 1) I’m a hardcore Trevor apologist. Fight me about it.
Seriously, though. I think it’s at least somewhat interesting to note how all the really highly viewed QBs here have at least one exceptional unit, but most have two. I also felt like the rankings kind of lined up with the narratives you hear about certain guys. Someone like Hurts doesn’t get as much credit because his oline and recievers are so good. Same for Tua and to a slightly lesser extent Purdy. Other guys who may not have top olines have great targets to throw to or a really strong running game to open up the passing game.
Nobody except Stroud came anywhere near Trevor in being so low on all the lists.
Conclusion? Trevor is still really good. He’s just not getting enough help across the board. Oline, recievers, run game, playcalling. It’s all middle of the pack or worse, and the top QBs are getting above average from at least 2/3 of the main offensive units.
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I disagree with your “expectations weren’t that high for Ridley”. He was made out to be a savior. I remember all the hype and now that he isn’t performing as expected it’s a “it’s not like we had much faith”.
hat high for Ridley". He was made out to be a savior. I remember all the hype and now that he isn’t perfor
Oh yeah I worded that badly. I agree with you. I just didn’t phrase my point right: I was trying to say the people who ranked us at #16 before the season must not have even had that high of expectations for us.
I felt like I was hearing our WR group talked about as a potential top 5 group going into the season. Now I think you’d be laughed at if you tried to call them even top 10 or maybe top 15.
Just watching the game is tough. The offense is horizontal cause theres no time, we have Ridley doing routes that go no where on the sideline, and ETN has to break what seems like 10 tackles to get 5 yds. Only time offense looks good is when Trevor is in rhythm, but its hard when the dline is always in the backfield
The line is an issue. But he’s over halfway through his third season and he is still way too inconsistent. I know the stat game isn’t always true but he has to throw more touchdown. He only has 9 TD passes this year. For a comparison, Sam Howell has 17. Josh Dobbs has 11. And he’s with his third team since training camp.
His red zone effectiveness is also a massive issue.
The biggest concern I have is he seems to have regressed from where he was the second half of last year.
But it’s not “his” red zone effectiveness. I guess that’s my larger point. When the field condenses, it puts even more emphasis on playcalling and guys getting open/winning matchups. Also, watch redzone and you’ll see *so many* touchdown passes where a QB is in the redzone, nobody is open, but the line holds for 3-4 seconds and the play breaks down. Somebody comes loose and it’s an easy pitch and catch.
Trevor never gets that because our line never holds 3-4 seconds, especially in the red zone. Our playcallers know our pass pro is terrible and they have no good plays, so they also just run the ball like crazy in the redzone which brings down his numbers.
Lol one bad loss….and pandemonium happens. Watch when we win the Super Bowl, we will have half a fan base left. Because they drank themselves to death, or did something stupid out of excitement. We are better than this. We are not Bills fans, they cannot handle winning or losing.
This team is not a Super Bowl contender. They’ve lost both games against the two best teams they’ve played, both at home. One was a blowout and the other was controlled by KC.
The offense stunk on Sunday. It’s not been great all year but has been bailed out by an opportunistic defense. They can’t count on that every game. Without some major improvement on offense, this team is either headed for a second half collapse or an early playoff exit.