I was replying to comments the other day on my post and I felt like something that I stumbled on was worth pointing out in a post, because it’s kind of encouraging (in a way).

Short version: Of all the consensus top 10 QBs people would probably argue are better than Trevor right now, Trevor has the worst offensive line, 2nd worst recieving core, and 4th worst rushing yards per attempt from his team. The only QB who really comes close in having as bad a supporting cast is Stroud, and props to him for looking insane despite the line. I skimmed a few “o line ranking lists” from different sources and went with the most recent one I could find.

I don’t really know which site does the best job at this stuff, so I tried to just get the most recent one. I couldn’t use PFF because I don’t have a sub, but the top of their list still kinda lined up with the point I’m trying to make. Here’s the one I’m using (https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/rankings/2023-nfl-midseason-offensive-line-rankings/)

So first of all, I’d say in no particular order, people right now could make a case that some or all of these guys are better than Trevor:

Mahomes, Burrow, Stroud, Lamar, Hurts, Allen, Herbert, Purdy, Tua, and maybe Dak or Jared Goff.

So let’s take those names and run down the strength of their offensive lines. (Format QB -> #O-line rank)

O-line

Mahomes -> #5
Burrow -> #12
Stroud -> #15
Lamar -> #4
Hurts -> #1
Allen -> #13
Herbert -> #7
Dak -> #6
Tua -> #10
Purdy -> #11
Trevor -> #20

If you look at Oline rankings BELOW Trevor, I think it’s safe to say you can’t really find any QB people are trying to claim is top 10 right now. These are the teams with Olines below the Jags:

Saints, Broncos, Cardinals, Titans, Panthers, Bears, Steelers, Patriots, Commanders, Rams, Raiders, Giants. Also, coincidentally, I think the Steelers are the only team with a sort of good record in that bunch below us.

What about receivers? I used PFF for this one (https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2023-nfl-receiving-corps-rankings). Unfortunately, I couldn’t find any credible looking mid-season lists. They were all from random blogs I’d never heard of, so this is a pre-season ranking. Format: QB name --> #recieving-Core ranking

Mahomes -> #11
Burrow -> #1
Stroud -> #32 (Props to Stroud, lol. I’m guessing this group is better than they expected, considering his passing numbers. Or maybe he’s just that good)
Lamar -> #15
Hurts -> #2
Allen -> #9
Herbert -> #12
Dak -> #6
Tua -> #3
Purdy -> #4
Trevor -> #16 (Gotta imagine our group ranks lower now with Ridley being a ghost this season. But expectations weren’t even that high and we’ve definitely sailed below them)

Once again, with the exception of Stroud (seriously, is this guy the next Mahomes or something?) he’s at the bottom of the list. Worst Oline of the “top QBs” and 2nd worst recieving core. Although I’m not quite sure how Stroud’s core is getitng such bad rankings if he’s throwing for 400 yards every game. Even if he’s inflating their value, you’d think they would be rated higher.

Anyway, last main part of offense is running game. I haven’t looked yet. Maybe this is where Trevor has an edge over the other guys?

I couldn’t find a great ranking list for this one so I just fiddled with the table on nfl.com stats. (https://www.nfl.com/stats/team-stats/offense/rushing/2023/reg/all)

Going through all the stats, we’re mid to below middle in all the good stuff. We’re actually pretty low on rushing fumbles, which is nice. But our yard per attempt/total rushing yards are around the middle of the league or worse. If I just try to keep it simple and use yards per attempt as the most “total” efficiency stat, it looks like the rankings would go like this.

Mahomes -> #16
Burrow -> #30
Stroud -> #29 (Props to Stroud, lol. I’m guessing this group is better than they expected, considering his passing numbers. Or maybe he’s just that good)
Lamar -> #2
Hurts -> #18
Allen -> #6
Herbert -> #25
Dak -> #19
Tua -> #1
Purdy -> #9
Trevor -> #24

Conclusion: 1) I’m a hardcore Trevor apologist. Fight me about it.

Seriously, though. I think it’s at least somewhat interesting to note how all the really highly viewed QBs here have at least one exceptional unit, but most have two. I also felt like the rankings kind of lined up with the narratives you hear about certain guys. Someone like Hurts doesn’t get as much credit because his oline and recievers are so good. Same for Tua and to a slightly lesser extent Purdy. Other guys who may not have top olines have great targets to throw to or a really strong running game to open up the passing game.

Nobody except Stroud came anywhere near Trevor in being so low on all the lists.

Conclusion? Trevor is still really good. He’s just not getting enough help across the board. Oline, recievers, run game, playcalling. It’s all middle of the pack or worse, and the top QBs are getting above average from at least 2/3 of the main offensive units.

  • SnooPets6234OPBEnglish
    1·
    1 year ago

    I feel like the problem is you’re listing guys who aren’t in the league anymore and played during a different meta phase of the game. Other than them, the only guy you can really point to right now with worse tools around him is arguably Stroud, who probably still has a better pass blocking o-line than Trevor.

    So I just don’t quite understand why we expect Trevor to be elite and putting up gaudy numbers with the worst tools, yet we hand wave the fact that every other guy we list as elite (except Stroud) has significantly better tools.

    If you could dig me a bunch of “elite” QBs up with worse o-lines even, then I would give it to you that he needs to do better. But I didn’t even bring up playcalling.

    You can use excelling scheming to work around a really bad o-line. You can be clever and put in the work to prepare for a game and get the plays just perfect for quick shots and trickery. Some coordinators can do it. Our playcalling is very very bad. Our running success rate is very very bad because our line also sucks at run blocking. So the other team knows we’re going to pass, they’re not scared of our run, and everybody knows our WRs have to run short stuff because Trevor is only going to have 2 to 2.5 seconds to throw the ball before he gets his head taken off.

    Clap your hands, count to two, and imagine how far someone can run in that time. Imagine how quickly you’d have to scan from left to right to evaluate whether somebody is open in two seconds. Then imagine it with giant linemen in your face and when you have spent the last 30 mins getting sawed in half over and over.