We have MUCH better quarterback play this year.

A healthy TE1 and healthy WR2 the entire season.

Our offense is producing 334 yards/game and 21.7 points/game.

Yet last year our offense produced 330 yards/game and 19 points/game.

You could make a strong argument we are underperforming on offense with the talent we have at QB.

What is your take?

If the only change last year was giving Turner Howell, do you think Turner would have produced an extra 4 yards and 3 points a game?

  • Thomson-and-FrenchB
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    10 months ago

    You’re ignoring sample size and variance when making this stats comparison. Averages alone (rarely) tell the entire story.

    EB has coached fewer games and the results have been inconsistent. The Bills and Giants games, where we scored very little, are having a large impact on the 2023 offensive averages per game - especially because the sample size is only 10 games.

    Looking at a more complete statistical picture, it’s clear that our offense under EB has a higher ceiling than the Turner era. This is demonstrated by the number of relatively high scoring games already this year. However, we’ve also been very inconsistent with very low scoring performances (i.e. high variance).

    This fits with what I think most people would say without even breaking down the stats: our offense is now more explosive but has been more inconsistent so far this year. Boom or bust

    Over a larger sample size, I would hope that EB works out the consistency issues and we end the season with higher offensive averages per game.

    The more challenging aspect is to separate out QB play. A great QB can make any offensive coordinator look better. Would Turner have had better stats with prime Brady under center? Of course.