The ATP website hasn’t confirmed this yet - I think Mochizuki still has a chance to overtake Nardi next week at the Yokohama Challenger. If Nardi loses his next match and Mochizuki wins Kobe this week, there’ll only be a 3 point difference between them. Correct me if I’m wrong.
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Cake day: November 9th, 2023
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I want to add that even this draw seems perfect lol. I would’ve favoured Sinner to make it out of the round robin, but he’s been drawn into a group where he has a losing record against each player, so it’ll be quite intriguing to see how he handles those hurdles.
Meanwhile, on the other side, we get to see Alcaraz vs Rublev for the first time, and everyone certainly wants to see Alcaraz vs Medvedev again after the USO. Zverev is obviously a huge x-factor too.
Any predictions?
Decided to simulate these using the UTS ‘Hypothetical Matchup’ feature that allows for these exact conditions as variables
Using ‘Peak ELO Rating’ for Prime Nishikori provides the date August 15th 2016 as the result
Fritz - 71.2% chance of Nishikori win
Hurkacz - 69.0% (nice) chance of Nishikori win
Rune - 73.4% chance of Nishikori win
Zverev - 62.8% chance of Nishikori win
Tsitsipas - 68.6% chance of Nishikori win
Rublev - 65.3% chance of Nishikori win
Sinner - 47.4% chance of Nishikori win
Medvedev - 49.9% chance of Nishikori win
Alcaraz - 50.7% chance of Nishikori win
Djokovic - 26.9% chance of Nishikori win