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Cake day: October 25th, 2023

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  • The New York Times (paywall) has a playoff machine. You can select every game left and see what happens. I’ve done this several times and after the Houston loss the Baltimore game is a must win. It’d still be possible to make the playoffs but they’d need so much help that it’s not practical. The AFC has thus far over-performed to the point that I cannot find a realistic scenario where a 10 win Cincinnati team makes it in. The 8th seed is as high as I can make that happen. It seems the biggest problem with losing yesterday is the Texans remaining schedule makes them now likely to occupy a playoff seed which removes numerous pathways for the Bengals. Even throwing some wild scenarios in like the Ravens or Buffalo dropping 4-5 more still has Cincinnati outside looking in after a Baltimore loss.