Based upon the upcoming schedules for the Commanders and the rest of the league, via NFL Playoff Predictor, I think the Top 10 draft selections look like:

1. Chicago via Carolina
2. Chicago
3. NY Giants
4. NY Jets
5. Tennessee
6. Cincinnati
7. New England
8. Washington
9. Las Vegas
10. Indianapolis

In this scenario, Washington secures a valuable draft pick to compliment the ~$87M in cap space they’re expected have for the 2024 offseason. This is how I predict the rest of the offseason to go:

• After the season concludes, the organization will “part ways” with Ron Rivera, Martin Mayhew, Marty Hurney, etc. in preparation for a clean slate within football operations.
• In late January, it will be announced that the new General Manager of the Washington Commanders will be Adam Peters (current Assist. GM of the 49ers)
• Depending on when the Detroit Lions season ends or early February at the latest – it will be announced the new Head Coach of the Washington Commanders will be Ben Johnson (current OC of the Detroit Lions)

Adam Peters has been a rising name in NFL front offices with him receiving the 4th most votes, alongside John Lynch during the 2023 NFL agent survey for top talent evaluators via The Athletic. In the same survey, Adam Peters specifically received the 4th most votes on who agents consider the most trust-worthy. This is the type of person that new ownership would benefit bringing in to lead the future of Washington.

Last year, Ben Johnson withdrew his candidacy from Houston, Indianapolis, and Carolina. He specifically declined the interview with Carolina and cited not leaving a good situation and good coaching staff in Detroit when asked about staying in Detroit. However, if you look at each of these coaching destinations there’s a pattern – ownership & pre-existing GMs.

• The Houston Texans have been rumored to be one of the next NFL teams up for sale but besides that, the team has had questionable actions such as Jack Easterby and their treatment of Lovie Smith and David Culley. Their current General Manager is Nick Caserio who has been in power since 2021.
• The Indianapolis Colts have an overly involved owner with Jim Irsay and a General Manager that looked like a hot seat candidate although Frank Reich was the scapegoat. Their current General Manager is Chris Ballard who has been in power since 2017.
• The Carolina Panthers have an owner that has been compared to Dan Snyder in terms of his impatience and meddling tendencies. This seemingly was proven true by reports that he directed the drafting of Bryce Young although the football staff wanted CJ Stroud. Their current General Manager is Scott Fitterer who has been in power since 2021.

Although some analysts have argued that Chicago and LA (Chargers) could be more attractive or available situations but I disagree:

Chicago Bears:

With Chicago, it’s possible that they retain Matt Eberflus while Ryan Poles is still the General Manager. For starters, Poles’ first hire in Chicago was Eberflus with the intention of conducting a rebuild. If that intention remains, Eberflus may be safe for another season with Justin Fields made the scapegoat. In this scenario, Eberflus remains and Chicago drafts either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye to serve as their new franchise QB. This is possible as neither Eberflus or Poles were around when Justin Fields was drafted and his rookie contract is expiring.

However, according to NFL Insider Albert Breer, it’s becoming increasingly likely that new Team President Kevin Warren cleans house and fires both Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus – instead hiring his own people for football operations. It’s possible the replacement for Eberflus would be Michigan Head Coach Jim Harbaugh, who has ties to the Chicago franchise, Team President Kevin Warren, and has been speculated to have interest should the position be available. This would remove Chicago as an opportunity for Ben Johnson.

LA Chargers:

Brandon Staley has been on the hot seat since their disappointing collapse last postseason in the Wild Card round against Jacksonville, which was the largest blown lead in Chargers history. Besides that, Brandon Staley has been an average Head Coach with a 23-21 regular season record although the Chargers have Justin Herbert at QB. It’s possible and understandable that the Chargers would seek an offensive-minded Head Coach to further develop and capitalize on Justin Herbert’s talent.

It’s been reported, as of earlier in November 2023, that the Chargers are likely to retain Brandon Staley for next season but on a short leash. Chargers ownership is also notoriously cheap with reluctance to terminate coaching contracts before their final year, a Chargers Head Coach has been allowed at least four years before firing since 2001. Brandon Staley’s record isn’t drastically different than either of the last two coaches, Anthony Lynn and Mike McCoy, both which were given four seasons before contract termination. Due to this, it’s unlikely the Chargers will even have a vacancy for Ben Johnson to interview for.

Why Washington?

It’s very possible Washington decides to kick it back with Sam Howell for another season. Players and coaches around the league have given him a lot of respect although he’s been negatively impacted by several factors out of his control:

• Arguably the worst defense in the entire NFL
• Bottom tier offensive line that will need another overhaul
• #2 most impactful EPA from dropped passes by receivers

However, he’s not without blame as he’s had two implosion games against Buffalo and New York that appear to be outliers in his 13 career starts. In fact, if you remove the Buffalo and Giants game his stats still measure favorably compared to other starting QBs:

• 65.6% completion rate – #15 in NFL
• 2,913 yards passing – #5 in NFL
• 17 passing TDs – #11 in NFL
• 6 INTs – #9 in NFL (tied with others)
• 2 rushing TDs – #7 in NFL
• QB Rate: 94.57 – #12 in NFL
• 291.3 yards/game – #3 in NFL

Based on also watching Howell play during competitive games, not blowout situations, he looks like a promising young QB on a cheap rookie deal worth building around. He has more career TDs and has shown more talent than Kenny Pickett, who has a 13-9 career record due to Pittsburgh’s strong defense. In 2022, Washington’s defense allowed 20.2 points/game instead of the 29.2 points/game allowed in 2023. If that carried over to this season, rounding up to 21 points allowed per game, Washington would be 7-5 with the #6 seed in the NFC.

Besides a reason to have faith in the QB situations for a new Head Coach, Ben Johnson also has familiarity with Sam Howell from the 2022 Senior Bowl. Howell said "He’s a great teacher. He just knows how to relate to people. He knows how to best get a message across, (he) teaches in a way that everyone can understand.” Also, Ben Johnson was a walk-on QB at UNC during his time there - which makes it very likely he’s kept tabs on Sam Howell’s career since 2019 when he served as the UNC starting QB.

I think in terms of coaching assistants under Ben Johnson, a very possible choice for Offensive Coordinator is Anthony Lynn. Partial reasons are due to:

• Anthony Lynn has experience as a Head Coach which could be beneficial for a first-time Head Coach in Ben Johnson
• Ben Johnson took over for Anthony Lynn in Detroit after working under him, likely meaning they have similar offensive schemes and philosophies
• Anthony Lynn is available to hire without immediate fear he’ll get poached in 1-2 seasons, as he was granted permission by the 49ers to interview for the Commanders OC position last offseason - this also means he’s likely comfortable with Sam Howell as the QB
• Assuming Adam Peters is hired as the General Manager, he’d have familiarity with Anthony Lynn as they’re both currently part of the San Francisco 49ers staff

Alternative names that could be considered are Eric Studesville, Darrell Bevell, and Tanner Engstrand based upon overlapping coaching staff histories and current availabilities for an Offensive Coordinator position.

Defensive Coordinator candidates are harder to predict but I’d imagine an individual that makes sense would be Cory Undlin, currently the Defensive Passing Game Coordinator for the Houston Texans. He was previously in San Francisco in a similar role before leaving with DeMeco Ryans. Prior to his time in San Francisco he was in Detroit where he served as their Defensive Coordinator in 2020. This provides potential connections to both Ben Johnson and Adam Peters.

However, depending on how the season ends, Robert Saleh may part ways with the Jets. If that happened, I’d imagine he’d be a hot name for Defensive Coordinator openings and one Adam Peters would suggest as he also has experience as a Head Coach that Ben Johnson can lean on.

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In summary, there is a path where Washington ends up with:

• GM: Adam Peters
• HC: Ben Johnson
• OC: Anthony Lynn
• DC: Robert Saleh