Despite Luka only being 24 (the youngest MVP was Derrick Rose at 22) he has come into the season in the best shape of his life and has so far played at another tier. If he can sustain this level of play, he could be the favorite to win the MVP.
Going into this season, I think the MVP is wide open for Luka. Giannis seems to have plateau, Embiid will have voter fatigue. KD, Curry, LeBron are old. Only Jokic has a real chance of competing for the title.
I agree that the advanced stats tell a different story. The fact of the matter still goes with team record and seeding. If we are in the middle of March and Mavs are a top 4 seed in the West and he’s putting up these numbers still he HAS to be in the conversation for MVP and a top 3 candidate. He’s perpetually an MVP candidate in October/November/December but then he either gets injured or the Mavs shit the bed for a few weeks. The Mavs should be 0-2 and we are 2-0 because of Luka. That’s mvp caliber play despite all the other metrics, anyone who watched these games know that he is HIM. Comparing team Records from teams 10+ years ago isn’t a valid argument as it wasn’t for comparing LeBron teams and records to the Jordan era. Right now there is 10 teams in each conference that are really solid teams and 10+ years ago one superstar was more than enough for a deep playoff run. Today, two superstars don’t even guarantee you get to the playoffs let alone out of the first round. A play in team went through top seeded teams in the east last season to go to the finals.
If Luka can get Dallas to something like 50 wins while having to deal with World B. Flat and the rest of the shit roster, then he could legit win MVP.
Giannis has nothing to do with plateau. He and Jokic are voter fatigue. Very difficult to win more than two MVPs.
LeBron nor KD will play enough games to win. Even if Curry does play enough games, the Warriors are washed, so the win total won’t be there.