| Interception number | Current score | Quarter in game | Opponent | WR ball intended for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Down: 0-17 | 3 | Saints | Doubs |
| 2 | Down: 3-17 | 2 | Lions | Watson |
| 3 | Down: 17-34 | 4 | Lions | Doubs |
| 4 | Down: 3-10 | 2 | Raiders | Doubs |
| 5 | Down 13-17 | 4 | Raiders | Watson |
| 6 | Down: 13-17 | 4 | Raiders | Watson |
| 7 | Down: 17-19 | 4 | Broncos | Toure |
| 8 | Down: 3-17 | 3 | Vikings | Reed |
| 9 | Down: 19-23 | 4 | Steelers | Watson |
| 10 | Down: 19-23 | 4 | Steelers | Watson |
| Analysis/Context: |
|---|
| 1) Deep ball overthrow |
| 2) Deep ball overthrow |
| 3) Miscommunication with Doubs after play had broken down. Really seemed like he thought Doubs would cut in. Note: Less than 4 minutes left in game down by 17 |
| 4) Threw it straight to linebacker who undercut route 10 yards deep. Probably his worst interception of the year in my opinion because it was a really bad decision and not just inaccurate, completely lost track of the LB. |
| 5) Tried to throw it into too tight of window, DB makes a great play on ball for tip and pick. His fault but the kind of throw that probably wouldn’t be picked off too often |
| 6) Deep ball underthrow. Note: Less than 1 minute remaining but was 3rd down and didn’t need to go for a desperation toss that play. |
| 7) Deep ball underthrow. Note: Less than 2 minutes left, 3rd and 20 and Watson got hurt the previous play |
| 8) Deep ball interception but honestly a good pass in my opinion. Reed gets ball ripped from his hands by DB, should have been a completion. |
| 9) Deep ball interception but Watson could have hauled it in, bounces right off his hands. DB makes a stellar play to tip the ball after the ball bounced off Watson which let another player get the pick. Note: 3 1/2 minutes left |
| 10) Medium depth throw, mistimes hitting Watson, should have been a tick earlier. Last play of game had to force it in. Note: 3 seconds left, threw it against 7 DBs lined up on goal line. |
Summary:
- All 10 of his interceptions have been when the team is behind.
- All but two were intended for Doubs or Watson with Watson leading with 5 intended passes picked off.
- Only two were thrown in the first half. Six in the 4th quarter.
- 7 of the 10 interceptions were deep ball tosses (20+ yards or more in the air).
- 0 INTs of 10 yards or less in the air (#4 might be, I’d have to re-watch it)
- Only 1 interception all season when down by one score or less and not in the 4th quarter (4th pick of season against the Raiders).
- Based on my own opinion, 5 of the 10 interceptions were just straight up bad throws. #3 really seemed like Doubs and Love were not on the same page, #5 was a great play by the DB that almost was a completion, #8 and #9 I thought both should have been caught and #10 was desperation last second throw.
- I’d argue only 1-2 throws of the 5 bad throws were poor decisions (#4 for sure), with the other 3-4 just missing the target. Granted, #5 was not a bad throw (accurate) but probably not the smartest decision.
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One additional set of numbers that I thought was interesting:
Team win probability right before the INT:
Before INT After INT Diff 1) 7% 6% -1% 2) 15% 10% -5% 3) 0.2% 0.1% -0.1% 4) ? (hard to tell since Raiders just scored a TD). Probably between 40 and 45% 33% Between -7% and 12% 5) 36.2% 23.4% -13.2% 6) 23.7% 0% -23.7% 7) 42.5% 8.5% -34% 8) 8.9% 4.4% -4.5% 9) 42.4% 24.3% -18.1% 10) 33.8% 0% -33.8% Based on ESPN Win probability calculator
So 0 INTs when team was favored to win. By these numbers we can group the INTs into these categories:
Barely changed win probability: 1,3 (1% diff or less)Small change in win probability: 2,8 (5% diff or less)All or nothing throws: 6, 10 (throw effectively or literally ended the game)
That leaves 4, 5, 7, and 9 as meaningful picks outside of last second/minute heaves.
I still think the final INT by the Steelers was luck. They should have been playing less DBs and more DL in coverage.