​

Interception number Current score Quarter in game Opponent WR ball intended for
1 Down: 0-17 3 Saints Doubs
2 Down: 3-17 2 Lions Watson
3 Down: 17-34 4 Lions Doubs
4 Down: 3-10 2 Raiders Doubs
5 Down 13-17 4 Raiders Watson
6 Down: 13-17 4 Raiders Watson
7 Down: 17-19 4 Broncos Toure
8 Down: 3-17 3 Vikings Reed
9 Down: 19-23 4 Steelers Watson
10 Down: 19-23 4 Steelers Watson

​

Analysis/Context:
1) Deep ball overthrow
2) Deep ball overthrow
3) Miscommunication with Doubs after play had broken down. Really seemed like he thought Doubs would cut in. Note: Less than 4 minutes left in game down by 17
4) Threw it straight to linebacker who undercut route 10 yards deep. Probably his worst interception of the year in my opinion because it was a really bad decision and not just inaccurate, completely lost track of the LB.
5) Tried to throw it into too tight of window, DB makes a great play on ball for tip and pick. His fault but the kind of throw that probably wouldn’t be picked off too often
6) Deep ball underthrow. Note: Less than 1 minute remaining but was 3rd down and didn’t need to go for a desperation toss that play.
7) Deep ball underthrow. Note: Less than 2 minutes left, 3rd and 20 and Watson got hurt the previous play
8) Deep ball interception but honestly a good pass in my opinion. Reed gets ball ripped from his hands by DB, should have been a completion.
9) Deep ball interception but Watson could have hauled it in, bounces right off his hands. DB makes a stellar play to tip the ball after the ball bounced off Watson which let another player get the pick. Note: 3 1/2 minutes left
10) Medium depth throw, mistimes hitting Watson, should have been a tick earlier. Last play of game had to force it in. Note: 3 seconds left, threw it against 7 DBs lined up on goal line.

Summary:

  • All 10 of his interceptions have been when the team is behind.
  • All but two were intended for Doubs or Watson with Watson leading with 5 intended passes picked off.
  • Only two were thrown in the first half. Six in the 4th quarter.
  • 7 of the 10 interceptions were deep ball tosses (20+ yards or more in the air).
  • 0 INTs of 10 yards or less in the air (#4 might be, I’d have to re-watch it)
  • Only 1 interception all season when down by one score or less and not in the 4th quarter (4th pick of season against the Raiders).
  • Based on my own opinion, 5 of the 10 interceptions were just straight up bad throws. #3 really seemed like Doubs and Love were not on the same page, #5 was a great play by the DB that almost was a completion, #8 and #9 I thought both should have been caught and #10 was desperation last second throw.
  • I’d argue only 1-2 throws of the 5 bad throws were poor decisions (#4 for sure), with the other 3-4 just missing the target. Granted, #5 was not a bad throw (accurate) but probably not the smartest decision.
  • nacreonOPBEnglish
    1·
    1 year ago

    One additional set of numbers that I thought was interesting:

    Team win probability right before the INT:

    ​

    Before INT After INT Diff
    1) 7% 6% -1%
    2) 15% 10% -5%
    3) 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
    4) ? (hard to tell since Raiders just scored a TD). Probably between 40 and 45% 33% Between -7% and 12%
    5) 36.2% 23.4% -13.2%
    6) 23.7% 0% -23.7%
    7) 42.5% 8.5% -34%
    8) 8.9% 4.4% -4.5%
    9) 42.4% 24.3% -18.1%
    10) 33.8% 0% -33.8%

    Based on ESPN Win probability calculator

    So 0 INTs when team was favored to win. By these numbers we can group the INTs into these categories:

    Barely changed win probability: 1,3 (1% diff or less)Small change in win probability: 2,8 (5% diff or less)All or nothing throws: 6, 10 (throw effectively or literally ended the game)

    That leaves 4, 5, 7, and 9 as meaningful picks outside of last second/minute heaves.