By my count, of the 37 QBs taken in Round 1 since 2011, only 8 have been what you can call a success for the team that drafted them, and only 1 sort of lead their team to a Super Bowl win (Wentz, but we all know that Nick Foles did that). That’s a 21.6% rate of success. This is why looking for “generational talent” in the first round is a fool’s errand. And when applied to this franchise that has shown very little ability to identify and develop QB talent in the draft, it’s absolutely moronic.

Anyway, here’s my list and Hit/Miss count. Note that there are more “hits” in recent classes b/c we don’t know how they’ll turn out (Burrow who I love, has 2 season ending injuries, Kyler Murray, one, etc.). I think it’s too soon to say anything about 2022 class.

2021

Trevor Lawrence – Hit (probably) (1)

Zach Wilson – Miss

Justin Fields – Miss (probably)

Trey Lance – Miss

Mac Jones - Miss

2020

Joe Burrow – Hit (probably) (2)

Tua Tagovailoa – Hit (probably) (3)

Justin Herbert – Miss (probably)

Jordan Love – Miss (probably)

2019

Kyler Murray – Hit (maybe, more like TBD) (4)

Daniel Jones – Miss

Dwayne Haskins - Miss

2018

Baker Mayfield – Miss

Sam Darnold – Miss

Josh Allen – Hit (5)

Josh Rosen – Miss

Lamar Jackson – Hit (6)

2017

Mitchell Trunbisky – Miss (lol)

Patrick Mahomes – Hit

Deshaun Watson - Miss

2016

Jared Goff – Miss

Carson Wentz – Miss

Paxton Lynch – Miss

2015

Jameis Winston – Miss

Marcus Mariota - Miss

2014

Blake Bortles – Miss

Johnny Manziel – Miss

Teddy Bridgewater - Miss

2013

EJ Manuel – Miss

2012

Andrew Luck – Hit (7)

RGIII – Miss

Ryan Tannehill – Miss

Brandon Weeden – Miss

2011

Cam Newton – Hit (8)

Jake Locker – Miss

Blain Gabbert – Miss

Christian Ponder – Miss

  • GryffindorqB
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    1 year ago

    hmmm. good post. i think id be a little more generous on what id call a hit, but it would not really change ur point

  • Brodie1567B
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    1 year ago

    Lmao, I stopped reading after Herbert was labeled a miss.

  • JeanieGold139B
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    1 year ago

    So what’s your alternative? Just give up and turn the Bears into a soccer franchise? The fact first round picks have a chance at busting doesn’t mean you should whine and just give up, besides that picking in the first round is the best method at getting a franchise qb by far. Good qbs don’t hit free agency and later round qbs have an even higher rate of busting.

  • homestyle28OPB
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    1 year ago

    If I were a GM, I would always trade out of No. 1.

    If I were Bears GM, I’d take MHJ, trade the other pick, and take 3 OLs in the first 2 rounds if I can.

  • Silver_HarvestB
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    1 year ago

    What many fail to understand. 80% of all drafted players are considered busts or misses. With the average career in the NFL is 4 years, most never get a 2nd contract. That is more of an indicator than anything else.

  • dtemp2022B
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    1 year ago

    This is extremely cherry picked and just looms on what it looks like today.

    Jordan Love is a first year starter and I hate to say it but he’s playing better. Can’t call him a mess yet

    I had to reread you calling Herbert a miss 10 times to make sure I read it correctly

    Watson would’ve been a hit for the Texans if he never got into legal trouble, that wasn’t a skill issue that was off the field stuff

    Jared Goff wasn’t a miss for the Rams, he was on a team that made the SB. Yeah they traded him but to say he was a bust pick is dumb and he’s playing today

    RGIII isn’t a miss if he doesn’t get hurt and the coaches don’t force him to play

  • BurgerBob1010B
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    1 year ago

    including Dwayne Haskins as a miss is such a weird thing to do. He played 16 total games - not even a full NFL season. Using him as a reason to not draft a 1st round QB is just so weird to me.

    but anyway, terrible post in general

  • Puzzleheaded-Ear9487B
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    1 year ago

    I just scrolled through the responses here. Unbelievable how sensitive everyone is to this post. I don’t even know what there is to argue here. The OP doesn’t even say what you should or shouldn’t do but just because it doesn’t support the narrative of draft their QB they want they’re flipping out.

  • SurferSting84B
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    1 year ago

    So what should we do? Just fold the franchise and call it forever?