By my count, of the 37 QBs taken in Round 1 since 2011, only 8 have been what you can call a success for the team that drafted them, and only 1 sort of lead their team to a Super Bowl win (Wentz, but we all know that Nick Foles did that). That’s a 21.6% rate of success. This is why looking for “generational talent” in the first round is a fool’s errand. And when applied to this franchise that has shown very little ability to identify and develop QB talent in the draft, it’s absolutely moronic.
Anyway, here’s my list and Hit/Miss count. Note that there are more “hits” in recent classes b/c we don’t know how they’ll turn out (Burrow who I love, has 2 season ending injuries, Kyler Murray, one, etc.). I think it’s too soon to say anything about 2022 class.
2021
Trevor Lawrence – Hit (probably) (1)
Zach Wilson – Miss
Justin Fields – Miss (probably)
Trey Lance – Miss
Mac Jones - Miss
2020
Joe Burrow – Hit (probably) (2)
Tua Tagovailoa – Hit (probably) (3)
Justin Herbert – Miss (probably)
Jordan Love – Miss (probably)
2019
Kyler Murray – Hit (maybe, more like TBD) (4)
Daniel Jones – Miss
Dwayne Haskins - Miss
2018
Baker Mayfield – Miss
Sam Darnold – Miss
Josh Allen – Hit (5)
Josh Rosen – Miss
Lamar Jackson – Hit (6)
2017
Mitchell Trunbisky – Miss (lol)
Patrick Mahomes – Hit
Deshaun Watson - Miss
2016
Jared Goff – Miss
Carson Wentz – Miss
Paxton Lynch – Miss
2015
Jameis Winston – Miss
Marcus Mariota - Miss
2014
Blake Bortles – Miss
Johnny Manziel – Miss
Teddy Bridgewater - Miss
2013
EJ Manuel – Miss
2012
Andrew Luck – Hit (7)
RGIII – Miss
Ryan Tannehill – Miss
Brandon Weeden – Miss
2011
Cam Newton – Hit (8)
Jake Locker – Miss
Blain Gabbert – Miss
Christian Ponder – Miss
If I were a GM, I would always trade out of No. 1.
If I were Bears GM, I’d take MHJ, trade the other pick, and take 3 OLs in the first 2 rounds if I can.