By my count, of the 37 QBs taken in Round 1 since 2011, only 8 have been what you can call a success for the team that drafted them, and only 1 sort of lead their team to a Super Bowl win (Wentz, but we all know that Nick Foles did that). That’s a 21.6% rate of success. This is why looking for “generational talent” in the first round is a fool’s errand. And when applied to this franchise that has shown very little ability to identify and develop QB talent in the draft, it’s absolutely moronic.
Anyway, here’s my list and Hit/Miss count. Note that there are more “hits” in recent classes b/c we don’t know how they’ll turn out (Burrow who I love, has 2 season ending injuries, Kyler Murray, one, etc.). I think it’s too soon to say anything about 2022 class.
2021
Trevor Lawrence – Hit (probably) (1)
Zach Wilson – Miss
Justin Fields – Miss (probably)
Trey Lance – Miss
Mac Jones - Miss
2020
Joe Burrow – Hit (probably) (2)
Tua Tagovailoa – Hit (probably) (3)
Justin Herbert – Miss (probably)
Jordan Love – Miss (probably)
2019
Kyler Murray – Hit (maybe, more like TBD) (4)
Daniel Jones – Miss
Dwayne Haskins - Miss
2018
Baker Mayfield – Miss
Sam Darnold – Miss
Josh Allen – Hit (5)
Josh Rosen – Miss
Lamar Jackson – Hit (6)
2017
Mitchell Trunbisky – Miss (lol)
Patrick Mahomes – Hit
Deshaun Watson - Miss
2016
Jared Goff – Miss
Carson Wentz – Miss
Paxton Lynch – Miss
2015
Jameis Winston – Miss
Marcus Mariota - Miss
2014
Blake Bortles – Miss
Johnny Manziel – Miss
Teddy Bridgewater - Miss
2013
EJ Manuel – Miss
2012
Andrew Luck – Hit (7)
RGIII – Miss
Ryan Tannehill – Miss
Brandon Weeden – Miss
2011
Cam Newton – Hit (8)
Jake Locker – Miss
Blain Gabbert – Miss
Christian Ponder – Miss
hmmm. good post. i think id be a little more generous on what id call a hit, but it would not really change ur point
Lmao, I stopped reading after Herbert was labeled a miss.
So what’s your alternative? Just give up and turn the Bears into a soccer franchise? The fact first round picks have a chance at busting doesn’t mean you should whine and just give up, besides that picking in the first round is the best method at getting a franchise qb by far. Good qbs don’t hit free agency and later round qbs have an even higher rate of busting.
If I were a GM, I would always trade out of No. 1.
If I were Bears GM, I’d take MHJ, trade the other pick, and take 3 OLs in the first 2 rounds if I can.
Delete this
If fields is a miss, why keep him??
What many fail to understand. 80% of all drafted players are considered busts or misses. With the average career in the NFL is 4 years, most never get a 2nd contract. That is more of an indicator than anything else.
This is extremely cherry picked and just looms on what it looks like today.
Jordan Love is a first year starter and I hate to say it but he’s playing better. Can’t call him a mess yet
I had to reread you calling Herbert a miss 10 times to make sure I read it correctly
Watson would’ve been a hit for the Texans if he never got into legal trouble, that wasn’t a skill issue that was off the field stuff
Jared Goff wasn’t a miss for the Rams, he was on a team that made the SB. Yeah they traded him but to say he was a bust pick is dumb and he’s playing today
RGIII isn’t a miss if he doesn’t get hurt and the coaches don’t force him to play
including Dwayne Haskins as a miss is such a weird thing to do. He played 16 total games - not even a full NFL season. Using him as a reason to not draft a 1st round QB is just so weird to me.
but anyway, terrible post in general
I just scrolled through the responses here. Unbelievable how sensitive everyone is to this post. I don’t even know what there is to argue here. The OP doesn’t even say what you should or shouldn’t do but just because it doesn’t support the narrative of draft their QB they want they’re flipping out.
So what should we do? Just fold the franchise and call it forever?
Dwayne Haskins as miss is cold…
Goff? Watson?