When evaluating a GM you have to evaluate him not only on the picks he made, but how that compares to the performance of other GMs in the field.

Good example here is 2015 - we needed a QB, there were 2 options - Winston or Mariotta. Even if we didn’t go with QB, look at the next 10 picks - were any of them better picks really? I’d argue that choice was pre-determined and a wash. If I were evaluating any GM in the first round of that 2015 draft, there were maybe a quarter of the picks that panned out with some appropriateness to where they were drafted.

Drafting also has a lot of unknowns that are out of the GMs control - such as how the coaching staff utilizes/develops a player, as well as the player themselves and the various reasons why they fail and succeed that’s entirely on them.

Has Licht been the best GM in the NFL? I wouldn’t say that, but I’d wager he’s in the top quarter of the league (top 10ish?) based on the drafting and FA pickups / roster construction he’s done over the years.

Licht is not on the hot seat. He’s going to pick the next HC unless Bowles somehow wins out plus wins a playoff game. If that new HC fails, then he’ll go with him. I don’t love Licht’s draft strategy, but he’s found more than enough talent through the draft to keep his seat cool. Coaching will be where he loses or keeps his job.

Best GM in the NFC South, by a sizable margin.

Licht built a roster that was attractive enough to bring Arians out of retirement and bring Brady to the most losing franchise ever. The Bucs weren’t even on any media’s list as a potential landing spot. And it wasn’t like Brady came to avoid a tough division because the Saints were dominant at the time. Licht isn’t going anywhere but I will go by draft year.

2014: Evans is arguably his best pick. ASJ and Charles Sims were busts, though Sims was decent in 2016.
2015: I personally believe if Brady didn’t choose Tampa, Jameis would’ve been resigned because there were no real other options outside of Philip Rivers. Donovan Smith (unpopular opinion) was solid overall and played a crucial role in the SB. Marpet was incredible for us. Kwon was average.
2016: Aguayo was a horrible pick. Hargreaves was horrible. Noah Spence just never recovered from that college injury.
2017: OJ may have been great but no GM can predict injuries. He could never stay healthy. Nothing needs to be said about Godwin.
2018: Vea was a great pick. Carlton Davis has been great overall (minus this season). Cappa played a big role in the SB. As did Whitehead, whom I felt would’ve helped this defense if he stayed since he was great at stopping the run.
2019: Devin White will not be resigned but you can’t deny that ridiculous playoff run when he looked SUPEr elite. SMB played a major role in the SB team, including the pick against GB that lead to Scotty’s TD. Jamel Dean has played solid overall as well and Mike Edwards I felt was good enough for depth and is much better than Ryan Neal.
2020: Wirfs and AWJ are the two picks that compete with Evans as his best picks. Wirfs and AWJ can be solid anchors on our offense and defense for another decade. Vaughn was a wasted pick. Tyler Johnson played a major role in offense in 2020 and had a big third down conversion in NO in the playoffs…
2021: JTS was HORRIBLE. Trask was a wasted and useless pick at the time as we should’ve got talent that would start immediately and help us repeat. Hainsey is still too early to tell.
2022: Logan Hall still needs to show more. Rachaad is a bad RB but great at pass catching. Otton would be a great backup and could still develop. Camarda is the best pick of that year and arguably the best punter in the NFL.

Overal, Licht hit on a lot. Just because players were released after 2020/2021 doesn’t mean they weren’t good. They played MAJOR roles in leading to a SB and without them, we maybe don’t win our second ring. Can’t discount that.