Curious to hear thoughts but this is where I am at with Dolphins win shares.
For those not familiar with win shares its pretty self explanatory. You assign a likelihood of victory to each game from 0-1 and then add it up to arrive at a decent record projection.
To determine win probability I am going to first determine the projected spread on each game using FPI and assign a value of 3 points for homefield advantage and then use a spread to win % converter to determine win shares.
Current Record: 8-3
Remaining schedule:
@ Washington (.81)
vs Tennessee (.95)
vs New Jersey (.96)
vs Dallas (.51)
@ Baltimore (.35)
vs Buffalo (.55)
This adds up to an expected record of 12.13-4.87
I think 12-13 wins is the general fan expectation right now and that is what we should expect. What an exciting time to be a Dolphins fan.
Fins up!
Who cares? The games will be decided on the field.
I’m hoping we exceed expectations and take into context the ref job at Philadelphia. I don’t feel like losing at all to the cowboys first and foremost then ravens and bills.