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Cake day: October 25th, 2023

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  • really hasn’t been that pronounced even in the usual suspects of “game’s gotten soft”:

    Season Defensive Pass Interference Defensive Holding Roughing the Passer Unnecessary Roughness
    1999 1.09 0.50 0.27 0.56
    2000 1.01 0.63 0.30 0.48
    2001 0.88 0.42 0.31 0.34
    2002 0.93 0.49 0.39 0.50
    2003 0.86 0.59 0.42 0.55
    2004 0.69 0.57 0.50 0.43
    2005 0.78 0.77 0.45 0.42
    2006 0.64 0.50 0.37 0.52
    2007 0.57 0.32 0.23 0.48
    2008 0.61 0.49 0.22 0.60
    2009 0.69 0.41 0.26 0.52
    2010 0.76 0.39 0.34 0.64
    2011 0.80 0.48 0.39 0.74
    2012 0.95 0.56 0.36 0.85
    2013 0.94 0.67 0.35 1.06
    2014 0.80 0.84 0.39 0.82
    2015 0.90 0.85 0.39 0.89
    2016 1.09 0.80 0.33 0.76
    2017 1.04 0.93 0.41 0.78
    2018 0.93 0.93 0.45 0.80
    2019 1.05 0.95 0.52 0.61
    2020 1.20 0.66 0.48 0.63
    2021 1.10 0.57 0.55 0.59
    2022 0.83 0.77 0.34 0.57
    2023 1.09 0.74 0.43 0.65

    We’re talking about an extra defensive holding every five games. an extra roughing the passer every eight.


  • Sure, I’ll do that for you in a few hours

    I will say that the share of first downs achieved by penalty is similarly pretty stable

    edit: busy as hell, and hitting the character limit so i’ll split into increases and decreases, but here you go, sorted by highest increase to smallest increase (decreases in child comment)

    penalty_type 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Slope r^2
    Neutral Zone Infraction 0.59% 0.52% 0.85% 0.94% 1.26% 1.08% 0.81% 1.18% 1.51% 1.57% 1.79% 2.29% 3.62% 3.55% 3.90% 3.52% 4.64% 3.41% 3.69% 4.16% 4.70% 5.36% 3.52% 2.71% 3.08% +0.17% 0.7198
    Defensive Holding 3.83% 5.05% 3.71% 3.80% 4.53% 4.13% 5.33% 4.21% 2.84% 4.36% 3.47% 3.26% 3.77% 4.49% 5.47% 6.39% 6.14% 6.00% 6.94% 6.95% 7.08% 5.85% 4.86% 6.93% 6.00% +0.12% 0.4888
    Unnecessary Roughness 4.33% 3.84% 3.00% 3.92% 4.26% 3.14% 2.88% 4.41% 4.24% 5.33% 4.43% 5.26% 5.78% 6.79% 8.70% 6.21% 6.47% 5.68% 5.83% 5.99% 4.52% 5.57% 4.98% 5.11% 5.29% +0.10% 0.3082
    Defensive Pass Interference 8.35% 8.08% 7.73% 7.23% 6.63% 5.01% 5.36% 5.36% 5.03% 5.47% 5.85% 6.27% 6.24% 7.57% 7.68% 6.09% 6.53% 8.12% 7.82% 6.89% 7.80% 10.72% 9.34% 7.39% 8.86% +0.08% 0.1901
    Defensive Too Many Men on Field 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 1.22% 0.87% 1.08% 1.09% 1.35% 1.03% +0.05% 0.5435
    Roughing the Passer 2.06% 2.41% 2.72% 3.04% 3.21% 3.62% 3.12% 3.13% 1.98% 1.99% 2.18% 2.78% 3.04% 2.90% 2.85% 2.93% 2.86% 2.47% 3.10% 3.31% 3.89% 4.25% 4.64% 3.00% 3.51% +0.05% 0.284
    Ineligible Downfield Pass 0.44% 0.68% 0.42% 0.40% 0.48% 0.34% 0.38% 0.20% 0.79% 0.80% 0.89% 0.23% 0.30% 0.16% 0.29% 0.71% 0.48% 0.58% 0.41% 0.46% 1.10% 0.77% 1.34% 2.77% 1.89% +0.04% 0.3182
    Offensive Holding 19.54% 20.10% 18.36% 19.73% 20.05% 17.10% 18.87% 15.56% 16.87% 16.38% 17.75% 19.57% 18.35% 19.63% 18.08% 18.57% 20.21% 20.41% 19.41% 20.69% 20.85% 15.98% 20.42% 19.60% 18.64% +0.04% 0.0353
    Illegal Formation 0.69% 1.08% 1.20% 0.88% 0.39% 1.50% 1.48% 1.51% 1.61% 1.99% 1.85% 2.00% 1.46% 1.25% 1.89% 1.24% 1.67% 1.89% 1.32% 2.09% 1.83% 1.64% 2.02% 1.62% 1.94% +0.04% 0.4155
    Illegal Use of Hands 1.99% 2.77% 1.73% 2.13% 2.16% 1.61% 1.64% 1.55% 0.72% 0.98% 1.22% 1.26% 2.22% 2.49% 2.37% 4.85% 3.31% 2.59% 3.16% 2.06% 2.78% 1.67% 2.33% 1.81% 1.89% +0.03% 0.0643
    Horse Collar Tackle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.74% 0.88% 0.75% 0.96% 0.50% 0.37% 0.58% 0.61% 0.41% 0.55% 0.73% 0.50% 0.33% 0.32% +0.03% 0.4132
    Offensive Pass Interference 2.46% 2.12% 2.15% 1.43% 2.04% 1.73% 1.88% 2.01% 1.75% 2.23% 2.48% 2.26% 2.07% 2.37% 1.95% 3.02% 2.91% 2.56% 3.37% 2.47% 2.84% 2.16% 2.43% 2.01% 2.16% +0.03% 0.1939
    Illegal Blindside Block 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.17% 0.06% 0.06% 0.28% 0.10% 0.33% 0.28% 0.09% 0.32% 0.20% 0.87% 0.49% 0.34% 0.36% 0.43% +0.02% 0.6034
    Illegal Shift 0.72% 0.36% 0.49% 0.64% 0.48% 0.68% 0.57% 0.66% 0.89% 0.49% 0.66% 0.61% 0.76% 0.56% 0.83% 0.50% 0.93% 0.96% 0.67% 1.28% 1.16% 0.80% 0.78% 0.89% 1.13% +0.02% 0.4566
    Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.49% 0.84% 1.18% 0.34% 0.00% 0.00% +0.02% 0.2114
    Delay of Game 4.67% 4.37% 3.88% 3.53% 3.27% 3.45% 3.55% 3.03% 5.48% 4.71% 4.17% 4.43% 3.83% 3.99% 4.54% 4.14% 4.10% 4.05% 3.66% 3.31% 3.51% 4.14% 5.01% 5.21% 4.48% +0.02% 0.0459
    Offensive Too Many Men on Field 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 0.17% 0.38% 0.28% 0.28% 0.53% 0.22% +0.01% 0.5038
    Disqualification 0.09% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.09% 0.08% 0.00% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.10% 0.10% 0.24% 0.09% 0.13% 0.12% 0.06% 0.17% 0.18% 0.26% 0.32% 0.59% 0.12% 0.26% 0.32% +0.01% 0.5134
    Player Out of Bounds on Kick 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.20% 0.15% 0.28% 0.19% 0.40% 0.22% +0.01% 0.518
    Taunting 0.03% 0.16% 0.49% 0.79% 0.81% 1.13% 0.27% 0.72% 0.31% 0.31% 0.23% 0.26% 0.40% 0.19% 0.90% 0.71% 0.71% 0.90% 0.50% 0.70% 0.26% 0.35% 1.34% 0.56% 0.49% +0.01% 0.0529
    Illegal Double-Team Block 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.46% 0.38% 0.31% 0.07% 0.05% +0.01% 0.2603
    Low Block 0.09% 0.13% 0.04% 0.03% 0.18% 0.34% 0.19% 0.07% 0.24% 0.35% 0.23% 0.19% 0.15% 0.28% 0.22% 0.18% 0.11% 0.06% 0.15% 0.06% 0.03% 0.00% 0.50% 0.40% 0.27% +0.00% 0.0494
    Unsportsmanlike Conduct 1.56% 1.01% 1.06% 1.16% 0.57% 0.79% 0.81% 1.84% 1.64% 1.57% 1.55% 1.36% 1.67% 1.12% 1.50% 1.83% 1.92% 1.86% 1.99% 1.39% 0.90% 0.84% 0.96% 1.06% 0.92% +0.00% 0.004
    Leverage 0.06% 0.03% 0.18% 0.12% 0.06% 0.11% 0.03% 0.03% 0.07% 0.07% 0.00% 0.06% 0.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.35% 0.29% 0.17% 0.03% 0.03% 0.16% 0.07% 0.22% +0.00% 0.0655
    Kick Catch Interference 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 0.17% 0.03% 0.06% 0.00% 0.05% +0.00% 0.2427
    Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.27% +0.00% 0.1154
    Roughing the Kicker 0.06% 0.10% 0.18% 0.24% 0.18% 0.14% 0.11% 0.23% 0.21% 0.10% 0.07% 0.10% 0.24% 0.19% 0.10% 0.18% 0.06% 0.35% 0.03% 0.23% 0.23% 0.24% 0.28% 0.16% 0.05% +0.00% 0.0321
    Player Out of Bounds on Punt 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 0.08% 0.16% 0.03% 0.17% 0.07% 0.17% 0.19% 0.40% 0.56% 0.45% 0.24% 0.34% 0.17% 0.26% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% +0.00% 0.0033
    Illegal Peelback 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.03% 0.00% 0.13% 0.00% 0.03% 0.00% 0.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% +0.00% 0.0716
    Delay of Kickoff 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.00% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.00% +0.00% 0.0848
    Illegal Wedge 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.16% 0.00% 0.06% 0.00% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.00% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% +0.00% 0.0068
    Illegal Kick/Kicking Loose Ball 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.00% +0.00% 0.097
    Leaping 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.11% 0.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% +0.00% 0.0004



  • if anyone’s curious how the rest of the league stacks up in that timeframe, here you go

    team regular_season regular_season post_season total reg_season_record post_season_record combined_record
    PIT 95 95 4 99 63-30-2 (0.674) 2-2 (.500) 65-32-2 (.667)
    MIA 72 72 1 73 45-27 (0.625) 0-1 (.000) 45-28 (.616)
    KC 84 84 10 94 52-32 (0.619) 5-5 (.500) 57-37 (.606)
    GB 78 78 7 85 46-31-1 (0.596) 3-4 (.429) 49-35-1 (.582)
    MIN 84 84 4 88 48-35-1 (0.577) 2-2 (.500) 50-37-1 (.574)
    LV/OAK 89 89 1 90 51-38 (0.573) 0-1 (.000) 51-39 (.567)
    DAL 70 70 7 77 40-30 (0.571) 2-5 (.286) 42-35 (.545)
    NE 66 66 9 75 37-29 (0.561) 6-3 (.667) 43-32 (.573)
    PHI 80 80 6 86 43-36-1 (0.544) 3-3 (.500) 46-39-1 (.541)
    SEA 88 88 7 95 47-40-1 (0.54) 3-4 (.429) 50-44-1 (.532)
    WAS 76 76 1 77 40-34-2 (0.539) 0-1 (.000) 40-35-2 (.532)
    LA/STL 70 70 5 75 37-33 (0.529) 5-0 (1.000) 42-33 (.560)
    NO 81 81 5 86 42-39 (0.519) 2-3 (.400) 44-42 (.512)
    TEN 82 82 4 86 42-40 (0.512) 2-2 (.500) 44-42 (.512)
    IND 86 86 1 87 43-42-1 (0.506) 0-1 (.000) 43-43-1 (.500)
    BUF 74 74 5 79 36-38 (0.486) 2-3 (.400) 38-41 (.481)
    ARI 72 72 1 73 34-36-2 (0.486) 1-0 (1.000) 35-36-2 (.493)
    DET 84 84 1 85 39-43-2 (0.476) 0-1 (.000) 39-44-2 (.471)
    ATL 89 89 2 91 42-47 (0.472) 0-2 (.000) 42-49 (.462)
    SF 70 70 4 74 33-37 (0.471) 3-1 (.750) 36-38 (.486)
    BAL 88 88 4 92 41-47 (0.466) 1-3 (.250) 42-50 (.457)
    DEN 81 81 2 83 37-44 (0.457) 2-0 (1.000) 39-44 (.470)
    HOU 81 81 1 82 36-44-1 (0.451) 1-0 (1.000) 37-44-1 (.457)
    TB 85 85 3 88 38-47 (0.447) 2-1 (.667) 40-48 (.455)
    NYG 85 85 1 86 37-47-1 (0.441) 1-0 (1.000) 38-47-1 (.448)
    CAR 81 81 2 83 35-45-1 (0.438) 1-1 (.500) 36-46-1 (.440)
    LAC/SD 98 98 2 100 42-56 (0.429) 1-1 (.500) 43-57 (.430)
    CIN 73 73 7 80 29-41-3 (0.418) 4-3 (.571) 33-44-3 (.431)
    NYJ 82 82 0 82 34-48 (0.415) n/a 34-48 (.415)
    CHI 85 85 1 86 35-50 (0.412) 0-1 (.000) 35-51 (.407)
    CLE 75 75 1 76 30-44-1 (0.407) 0-1 (.000) 30-45-1 (.401)
    JAX 70 70 5 75 23-47 (0.329) 3-2 (.600) 26-49 (.347)