I think Fantasy football has significantly more luck than poker but no where close to 99%.

I’d say poker is 40% luck and 60% skill and FF is probably more like 60% luck and 40% skill

In poker you can have a series of fairly bad hands but outplay the opponent based on figuring out what they might have and then getting them to fold by faking a better hand.

In FF, it’s tough to recover if you have a couple of major injuries to your star players.

More like poker. There’s a level of skill to put yourself in position to succeed, but ya need luck to bring it home.

Good players will find themselves in the top half of the standings or the playoffs more often than not. Winning ships is all luck.

Whether it is skill or luck, does not matter. We all play it to have fun. Recognizing that there is at least an aspect of luck is part of not allowing this game to consume you too much. I have been playing for 10+ years and after recently (3 years ago) realizing I can’t control too much other than my lineup decisions and who I draft/waivers, you enjoy it a lot more.

It’s a good point about the illusion of control/skill when in reality it’s mostly luck…but over the course of the year and more so years playing in the same league you will be able to tell the people who have more skill.

Fantasy Football has elements of skill and luck but I find players focusing on the luck elements especially during challenging seasons.

The luck elements are:

• Injuries
• Usage (changes throughout the season)
• Touchdowns

The skill elements are:

• Trade negotiation
• Waiver Wire acquisitions and FAAB management
• Team construction and understanding team builds

The luck elements definitely make the game frustrating but there is skill in the game imo.

As someone who plays slots occasionally, who the HELL thinks it takes strategy or skill? It’s all RNG, no timing, no strategy, and all games pay out virtually the same That said, I’ve never had a Fire Link tear an ACL while i was playing it

It’s chaos theory, the ability to manage the unmanageable better than others. Comments have mentioned poker which perfectly example this.

You have to play your personal lineup choice, which within itself carries choices based on projection/probability, matchups, bench options, the weather, as well as other factors.

You have to play other managers, think not just weekly matchups but the whole league, think waiver wire, trades, well times blocks.

You have to battle yourself in terms of deciding if you’re playing for now vs later, it’s a marathon after all. Do I sacrifice a risky lineup this week for a possible better lineup later? Does this bye week warrant a trade? Do I drop a lotto ticket now for a streaming flex?

You have to battle the unforeseen, the unpredictable. Did your 2nd pick tear his ACL? Do I even want his handcuff? Did Antonio Brown just take his jersey off and walk off the field? Did my player just get arrested for murder|manslaughter|Domestic Abuse? Did that player just die on the field?!

And at the end of the day, it’s Any Given Sunday. Any team can beat any other team, in any type of gamescript. The ball is the shape of a lemon, for goodness sake…it takes one bad bounce and the game changes on a dime.

You just have to manage the unmanageable better than about a dozen guys.

People who say Fantasy Football is mostly luck are ones who haven’t been very successful

If you believe betting the spread on games is the same as betting red or black on a roulette wheel, then whatever anyone writes here won’t change your mind

Id there a chance element involved? yes - is it more than 50% - NIMHO

I don’t know where you’re getting these stats. Fantasy is proven to be at least 80% skill when I’m winning, and is >95% luck when I lose.