Curious to hear some thoughts on this but fantasy football seems to be one of the few games out there that has a very stark illusion of skill/control that is hard to overcome. If you lay out games in a spectrum, with things that require 100% luck (bingo) on one end and things that require 100% skill (chess) on the other end, fantasy football is firmly on the luck side (I’d say it’s probably 99% luck or more if you are in an active league) but the odd thing about it is that it still feels like there is a lot of skill involved.
The best comparison I can come up with is going to the casino to play slots with your buddies, but you’re always spending a few hours beforehand doing research on what slots pay out the most over the last 3 months, how to precisely time the lever pull, etc… And then after you win/lose money, you start analyzing what you did right/wrong for the night. It’s like you know in the back of your mind that slots is all luck, but the illusion of control/skill is so high that you keep doing research, browsing forums, asking “experts” their opinion, etc…
To close this post out, all the above makes this game oddly frustrating since you are winning/losing a game of bingo but it feels like you won/lost a game of chess.
I think Fantasy football has significantly more luck than poker but no where close to 99%.
I’d say poker is 40% luck and 60% skill and FF is probably more like 60% luck and 40% skill
In poker you can have a series of fairly bad hands but outplay the opponent based on figuring out what they might have and then getting them to fold by faking a better hand.
In FF, it’s tough to recover if you have a couple of major injuries to your star players.