There’s been a lot of talk about the Chiefs’ drop issues this season, so I thought I’d provide some statistics to show what the numbers say on this topic.
First, lets look at the receiving targets on the team with 100+ receiving routes run this year. That list of seven players includes: Travis Kelce, Noah Gray, Rashee Rice, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, Kadarius Toney, and Skyy Moore. Collectively, their drop percentage is 6.4% for 2023.
In 2022, that group of receiving targets - with the exception of replacing Rashee Rice with Juju Smith-Schuster - had the exact same drop percentage: 6.4%.
*If you’re curious for the math of this, the formula for figuring out drop percentages is Drops / On-Target Passes.
2022: 21 Drops / 330 OTP = 6.4%
2023: 13 Drops / 203 OTP = 6.4%
Second, when we focus exclusively on the wide receivers with 100+ targets who were with the team last year - MVS, Watson, Toney, and Moore - their collective drop rate is actually slightly better than last year.
2022: 11 Drops / 104 OTP = 10.6%
2023: 8 Drops / 80 OTP = 10.0%
So while in neither year are these numbers good, they are also not getting worse year-over-year like many have claimed.
So where does this huge “dropped passes” number for Mahomes come from if these players’ drop rates are either the same or better? Well, its due to a small group of players who are adding a massive number of drops to Mahomes’ total: Jerick McKinnon, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Blake Bell, and Justyn Ross.
2023: 6 Drops / 37 OTP = 16.2%
*I should note that Bell and Ross are by far the worst offenders here.
TLDR; Drops year-to-year are either the same or slightly better among our core receivers. Yes, their drop numbers could be better this year and last, but the rate at which they are dropping on-target passes is not whats making the offense the Chiefs have worse than last year’s offense.
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What I would like to know is the yardage that would’ve been gained without those drops, as well as the missed third down conversions or touchdowns, and how that compares between this season and last. Also what is the efficiency in route running in terms of how much those routes translate to catches?
Your calculations are correct, but I don’t think this is a complete analysis.
People are over-reacting because of situational drops.
Last year was way worse. Remember the ball that skipped off Toney’s hands and ended up a pick against the Lions? Last year we had 6(!) such interceptions. It feels like deja vu watching everyone freak out, demand a #1 receiver, declare we’ll never win a Super Bowl this way, etc.