I’m not talking just the packers but the NFL in general. Guys getting drafter with these huge hopes and dreams to be out of a job in 2 yrs not injury related and looked like garbage the whole time.
Really makes you appreciate the skill levels of the guys who play for years
This is why I get annoyed when I see someone who played 10+ years get called a bust, regardless of their draft postion.
I wouldn’t ever call any professional athlete that lasted 10+ years at that level a bust. Shit most people can’t work a 9-5 for 10 years without getting fired at least once lol
And then there are players who go undrafted and make it to the Hall of Fame.
- the draft is a crapshoot. even the “obvious” picks don’t become obvious until 2 years later usually.
- the green bay packers are not like any other franchise in american sports, we as fans are not privvy to how many players walk into the meetings at the combine and simply say, “i don’t want to live in green bay and if you draft me i will leave as soon as i can.” i can guarantee that the packers hear that more than any other pro sports team in the us.
At best the draft is a game of educated guessing. Some guys have all the physical tools in the world but can’t seem to put things together in the NFL. Some guys don’t quite have the physical gifts, but they find ways to compensate. It’s really easy to evaluate who has the tools, it’s much harder to figure out who is going to make the most of what they have.
If you look back at draft histories, even the really good teams the Packers have had with a lot of sustained success, if you can get 3 good players out of a draft you’re doing good.
If you think about it, there are 22 starters on a team, so if you draft even 3 new starters every year that’s enough to turn over the lineup about every 7 years. Of course some players don’t last that long, but the best players tend to have the longest careers.
And that doesn’t even consider that every team has a few starters that really aren’t that good or seen as long term answers. Most teams might really just have 15 or so solid, long term starters, with other positions being filled by guys that are more part time starters or deemed replaceable after a few years. It’s what inevitably happens with even most good looking drafts. You might start out with 5-6 players that look like they could be long terms pieces, and then a couple get brought down by injuries or simply don’t develop over the next few years.
And the drafts that really do work out still have some busts. 2013 and 2014 are probably the best drafts in recent packers history, and they started out with Datone Jones (bust) and Ha-Ha Clinton Dix (washed by the end of his rookie contract).
The draft is very hard, and most people are just completely oblivious to this.
Posting the same chart I post whenever these conversations pop up, it was put together on the NFL Draft sub a couple years back looking at a variety of methods/criteria (AV, raw stats, PFF grades, accolades, etc.) for “hit” rate:
Round/Pick Amazing Good Serviceable R1 P1-10 ~20% ~40% ~65% R1 P11-20 ~15% ~30% ~60% R1 P21-32 ~10% ~20% ~55% R2 <5% ~15% ~35% R3 <5% ~10% ~15% R4 + R5 <5% <5% ~10% R6 + R7 <5% <5% ~5% UDFA <5% <5% <5% Basically amounts to 1.45 serviceable or better players per class as average.
That means that just two serviceable players per draft class (including undrafted free agents!) means you are ahead of the NFL average. Again, the draft is very hard. Most players do not succeed.