For 4th and 2, NFL teams conversion rate is 57.2% over the last decade. I didn’t agree with the decision when he did it. Generally, I think if you have the opportunity to take the lead late in the game, you should do it. But in retrospect, it’s obvious why he gave the opportunity to go out and win the game right then and there to the offense rather than the defense.
Were we that worried about giving up a TD with less than a minute left? HELL, YES WE WERE
Wow, that poster really did not seem to understand that our defense was not going to stop the Chargers from at minimum tying the game with their own field goal or more likely from scoring a touchdown to win the game.
Campbell made the right decision - gamble on our offense converting 4th and 2 over the defense preventing the Chargers from scoring a touchdown. Aside from our defense having completely failed on the previous 5 drives, it was probably gassed too.
hits “Show less” button.
Not worth arguing with that person.
One Pride.
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You need 2 yards to guarantee a win or at worst push it to overtime. I feel like you take that every time. Especially with how Herbert was playing
It wasn’t the points, it wasn’t the chances of “making the field goal” it was the probability of winning the game. Let’s say that we kick the field goal, it has a certain chance of being good but then you also give the chargers the ball back with what like a minute and something left on the clock right? Let’s just use some percentages for examples sake.
Let’s say you have a 75% chance of making the 44 yard field goal and then the chargers only have a 35% chance to score a field goal or potentially better (we have a 65% chance of winning the game if we make the field goal) AGAIN THESE ARE ROUND NUMBERS.
0.75 x 0.65 = 0.4875 or 48.75% chance of winning if we kicked that field goal.
Now let’s say that you have a 60% chance of making the 4th down, and now you have a 90% chance of making the field goal that is a chip shot. And the game is over, chargers don’t even get the ball back.
0.60 x 0.90 = 0.54% 54% chance of winning if we get the first down and kick a field goal as time expires. It’s not rocket science, it was the right call.
Also a lot of it is attitude. We had the balls to say, fuck you we are playing to WIN this game, not playing not to lose it. The team feeds off of that.I agree it wasn’t the gutsy call, it was the CORRECT call. You kick a FG there , and even if it’s a make, there’s a great chance th chargers come right back down the field and score.
When you have the chance, take the game out of the hands of the other team. That’s exactly what MCDC did today that he didn’t do vs Seattle earlier his year or @Minnesota last year.
Everyone is missing the point. Dan said he had 3 timeouts left so even if we failed and they scored, we likely would have some time left to tie it up.
We literally weren’t able to stop the Chargers all game. Nor would making a field goal have been a guarantee.
I’m also a little worried about how much Campbell loves to go for it on 4th down, but going for it on 4th and 2 was the correct call.